Third wave may not be as scary as expected: AIIMS chief Randeep Guleria

Visakhapatnam: Except the immunosuppressed and the ones with underlying medical conditions, children may not get much affected in the next wave of infections.

However, adherence to Covid-appropriate behaviour, intense testing, tracking and treating aid in bringing down the severity of the third wave, emphasises All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS) Director Randeep Guleria.

In an interview with The Hans India when he came to the City of Destiny, the AIIMS chief says the only challenge that looms large is how the mutation behaves in terms of vaccine efficacy.

"If the virus develops any immune escape mechanism and if the vaccine efficacy comes down significantly which the virus develops when confronted with vaccinated people, we may have to tweak the vaccine and bring in a booster dose by next year," he informs.

About the growing concern among people that children are likely to get infected in the next wave of infections because they are not inoculated yet, Dr Guleria says, "When Indian Council Medical Research's (ICMR) 'sero' survey considered children, the study indicated that more than 50 per cent of the children have already been infected and recovered from the coronavirus.

Even the data at global-level suggested that kids might get mildly affected in the third wave and the death rate would be very minimal."

Though the cases might likely to exceed in the next wave of infections, the AIIMS chief predicts that the infection per se would be milder and hospitalisation may not be that severe as witnessed in the first and second waves.

Also, the AIIMS chief denies the scope for the third wave becoming too severe based on a few factors. "Firstly, 50 crore of the country's people received at least a dose of the vaccine. Secondly, the recent sero survey of the ICMR indicates 60-70 per cent of people have developed antibodies and are therefore protected against the virus to an extent," he elaborates.

However, the 'unpredictable factor', Dr Guleria says, depends on how the virus mutates. "If it mutates like the alpha and delta variants where they can be more infectious, then there is a cause of concern," he reiterates.

In order to break the chain of transmission, the AIIMS chief stresses on being vigilant, not letting the guard down, having effective vaccine strategy as the pandemic is likely to come down only next year.

With more vaccines trickling in, the approval for Moderna Inc getting through from the regulator and production plants of Covishield and Covaxin in India being increased, Dr Guleria exudes confidence that the supply of vaccine is going to scale up every month and a majority of adults would be vaccinated by the end of the year.