EV mkt racing to $100-bn mark by 2030

Hitting Speed Lane

•  Bain & Co, Blume Ventures carried out study
•  Over 45% growth in 2&3-wheeler segments
•  20% growth in 4-wheeler space
•  India lags in EV charging infra

New Delhi: India’s electric vehicle (EV) market has the potential to achieve over 40 per cent penetration with $100 billion revenue by 2030, a substantial increase from the current five per cent penetration, if the policymakers address some key challenges, a new report showed on Thursday.

This growth is expected to be driven by strong adoption (over 45%) in both two-wheeler (2W) and three-wheeler (3W) categories, with four-wheelers (cars) penetration projected to grow to more than 20 per cent, according to the report by Bain & Company and Blume Ventures.

However, several structural challenges need to be addressed to achieve this potential across five themes - new product development, go-to-market/distribution, customer segment prioritisation, software development, and charging infrastructure, the findings showed.

India significantly lags other geographies on charging infrastructure, with roughly 200+ EVs per commercial charging point in the country, as compared to 20 in the US and less than 10 in China.

“India needs both slow and fast-charging infrastructure, through establishing more charging points in existing EV areas, as well as widening pin-code coverage to reduce range anxiety,” said the report.

Electric two-wheeler (E2W) market penetration can grow from 5 per cent to 45 per cent by 2030, provided original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) develop mid-segment scooter products to enable over 50 per cent penetration in scooter segment and introduce breakthrough entry-level motorcycle offerings.

“This will also require changes across the ecosystem – from reimagined distribution model, online customer engagement (community-led D2C), a scientific secondary market to localised supply chain, after sales model, and charging infrastructure,” the report mentioned.

Electric four-wheeler (E4W) market is expected to initially take off with fleet before passenger segment inflects. This will require fleet-specific EV models (entry-level cars in mass category) at price points comparable to corresponding ICE products, said the report.