IMF increases India's growth projection to 6.8 pc for 2024

Washington: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pegged India's growth projection to 6.8 pc this year, an increase of 0.3 pc over its January 2024 update.

The IMF in its World Economic Outlook (WEO), released on Tuesday, said growth in India is projected to remain strong at 6.8 per cent in 2024 and 6.5 per cent in 2025.

The robustness reflects continuing strength in domestic demand and a rising working-age population, it added.

In its January 2024 update to WEO released in October, the IMF had projected the Indian Economy to grow at 6.5 per cent each in 2024 and 2025.

India remains the top performer among large economies this year, and the next, with China following at 4.6 pc in 2024 and 4.1 pc in 2025.

Growth of Global Output is expected to maintain a steady rate of 3.2 per cent this year, as well as in 2025, the pace it grew at in 2023.

"The global economy remains remarkably resilient, with growth holding steady as inflation returns to target," the IMF observed.

Despite many gloomy predictions, the world avoided a recession, the banking system proved largely resilient, and major emerging market economies did not suffer sudden stops, the WEO added.

Futures markets suggest that oil prices will slide by 2.5 per cent year over year to average $78.60 per barrel in 2024 and will continue to fall to $67.50 in 2029, the IMF said, commenting on crude prices. It sees the risks to this price outlook as "balanced".

"Upside price risks could arise from an escalation of the Middle East conflict and attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. Downside risks could arise from a slowdown in Chinese oil demand and strong non-OPEC supply growth, possibly coupled with a rise in OPEC+ oil supply to regain market share," the IMF added.