India to be $20-trn economy by 2047

Hyderabad: By 2047, India will have a per capita income of $10,000, in the value of today's dollars, the average size of the GDP will be approaching close to $20 trillion and hence, it will be a "transformed society," says Dr Bibek Debroy, Chairman, Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister. He was virtually addressing the inaugural session at the 57th Annual Conference of the Indian Econometric Society (TIES) held at the University of Hyderabad on Wednesday. On the occasion, he said: "Basic necessities have been provided to the people and more so in the rural areas by the government. Economic indicators after Covid-19 have improved in India. Everyone is now looking to see the rate of growth in 2023-24 and the growth of the economy by 2047. The pandemic may have passed but still there is a lot of uncertainty around the world."

"There is uncertainty around what is happening in China, about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, growth prospects in Europe and the US. Since India is not insulated, we will also face the volatility in forex markets. Capital markets and exchange rates will face volatility. Inflation rates will also be impacted by some uncertainty," he added.

Noting that there are four sources of growth - consumption, private investment, government expenditure and net exports, Debroy said: "The global market is not going to be rosy. We tend to forget that when India did 9 per cent growth, our exports had performed quite well. The net GDP ratio is also very high."

Referring to the Goldman Sachs report which had contemplated the rate of growth for India only at 5.5 per cent, he said: "Today when India does 5.5 per cent, there is despair all around. Just to illustrate how aspirations have changed. However, with 5.5 per cent growth, there has been an exponential rise in the per capita income."

"The question which remains for all of us as researchers is 'What does India need to do to raise the growth rate from 7 per cent to 8 per cent?' Lot more research needs to be done at the level of the States. Different States are at different levels of development and hence the sources of growth will also be different. But the fact of the matter is that to raise the growth trajectory, we need to make land markets more efficient. Agriculture will also vastly improve when we make land markets more efficient. Similarly, we need to make the labour markets and capital markets also more efficient," he added.