India to emerge 3rd largest force in global GDP: S&P

New Delhi: India is projected to become the third-largest contributor to global real gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the next decade, behind only China and the US, according to a new S&P Global Market Intelligence research titled 'A Pragmatic World (Re)order'.

"A world ordered by decades of globalization and geo-economics has of late become a world oriented around geo-politics. To meet the crosscutting challenges defining the years ahead, a new pragmatism will emerge. Perhaps no country reflects that arising pragmatism better than India," the report said.

Lindsay Newman, Head of Geopolitical Thought Leadership at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said: "The decade ahead will be defined by a set of crosscutting and borderless challenges -- climate change, making the energy transition, technological guardrails and cybersecurity, pandemics and inequities. We expect countries to meet these challenges with a new pragmatism: cooperating across spheres of mutual interest and concurrently contesting across spheres of national interest --economic policy, industrial strategy, critical technologies and resources, supply chain security."

Even as India partners with the US (and others) under the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue framework and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity on multidimensional initiatives, it also maintains economic and trade ties elsewhere, including with strategic competitors of the US.

According to S&P Global's Global Trade Analytics Suite, in late 2022, China remained India's third-largest export market by value, and by far its largest supplier of imported goods, the report said.Even more indicative of current geopolitical dynamics is India's positioning during the Russia-Ukraine war.

According to S&P Global's Commodities at Sea database, as European markets imposed sanctions and sought to disengage from Russian energy resources, India became the second-largest recipient of Russian crude oil in 2022.The previous year, India did not represent a top 10 export market for Russian crude oil.

This form of expedient engagement, of collaborating on communal challenges while competing in the national interest, is not only an India story.