Indian stocks start fresh week with positive momentum

Indian stock indices opened marginally higher on Monday after having closed in the red the last session. At the time of writing this report, benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty were 0.5 per cent higher each. Last week, Indian stock indices managed to end with gains on a cumulative basis. Benchmark Sensex and Nifty indices accumulated 0.8-1.0 per cent gains.

Friday's trading session, however, closed sharply lower, partly due to profit booking after the recent consistent bull run and a sharp decline in banking stocks over the prevailing strains in the US regional banks.

The collapse of a few regional banks in the US, which started with Silicon Valley Bank, has sent ripples across the global banking industry and posed fears of a contagion effect across economies. Earlier in the week, firm GST collections, weakness in the US dollar, and continued foreign fund inflows supported Indian stocks. "FIIs (foreign institutional investors) have been continuous buyers in India during the last seven trading sessions, cumulatively buying equity worth Rs 11700 crores. Rupee appreciation is aiding FII buying," said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Going ahead, the release of US and Indian inflation data for April will be keenly watched by the market participants to get a direction. India's headline consumer price index-based (CPI) inflation (or retail inflation) has gradually declined from its peak of 7.8 per cent in April 2022 to 5.7 per cent in March 2023 - which is below RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent. The RBI's monetary policy actions over the past year seem to have reaped dividends in managing inflation.

Much of the future monetary policy actions by various central banks will also depend on the upcoming inflation data. "Further clues on the direction that other central banks will take will meanwhile be drawn from the series of inflation figures due in the coming week for the US, mainland China and India," said S&P Global Market Intelligence in its Week Ahead Economic Preview report.