India's merchandise exports in Q4 will be $118.2 bn: Export Import Bank of India

Chennai: India’s merchandise exports for the fourth quarter of FY24 will be about $118.2 billion, logging a year-on-year (YoY) growth of 2.96 per cent, the Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts.

According to the India Exim Bank, the non-oil exports are forecast to amount to $95 billion witnessing an yoy growth of 4.55 per cent, during Q4 (January-March) of FY2024.

These positive growth rates are expected to be witnessed against the backdrop of negative growth seen during the first two quarters of the year.

Positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s strong gross domestic product (GDP) growth fundamentals and outlook and expected global easing of monetary tightening spurring global demand.

"The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, the middle east crisis leading to the intensification of the Red Sea crisis and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors," India Exim Bank said on Wednesday.

According to the bank, India’s total merchandise exports for the full year for FY2024 are expected to be at $435.3 billion, while non-oil exports figures are likely to be maintained at the previous year’s level.

However, oil exports are expected to remain subdued during the year, contracting by $12.5 billion, compared to FY2023. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 1st quarter of FY 2025 (i.e. April-June 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of May 2024.