Multiplex - Jinesh Joshi - Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd

Update: 2023-07-25 15:53 IST

 Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd

On 14th July 2023, the Screen Actors Guild – American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA), an American labour union representing media professionals went on a strike amid ongoing labour dispute with Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP). AMPTP is basically a trade association in the US that represents TV and film production companies.

Apart from SAG-AFTRA, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) that represents screenwriters is also on a strike that started in the beginning of May. After 1960, this is the first occasion when Hollywood is facing a double strike (SAG-AFTRA and WGA) amid failed negotiations between actors/screenwriters and production companies.

Key reasons for the strike include:-

§ Deadlock over residual payments (financial compensation paid to actors in case of re-runs, syndication or streaming media)

§ Use of Artificial Intelligence (AI)

While it has just been 11 days since SAG-AFTRA strike; roughly 3 months have elapsed since the WGA strike. List of historical Hollywood strikes along with duration is given in the table below.

Exhibit 1: List of historical Hollywood strikes

Year Particulars Duration
2023 SAG-AFTRA strike Ongoing
2023 WGA strike Ongoing
2007-08 WGA strike 14 weeks
2000 Commercial actors strike 6 months
1988 Commercial actors strike 3 weeks
1988 WGA strike 22 weeks

Source: Wikipedia

Our view: If the current strike continues for long it can upset the delivery pipeline of movie/TV/OTT industry. In fact, given the strike production of some notable movies like Avatar-3&4, Deadpool-3, Gladiator-2, Mufasa: The Lion King etc has already been suspended. In FY23, Hollywood (English), as a genre (language), contributed 16%/12% to PVR-Inox’s/Industry’s BO collections. Though contribution from Hollywood is not very high, a prolonged strike can impact the delivery timeline of upcoming movies. Nonetheless, given strong movie pipeline on Bollywood (Rocky Aur Rani Ki Prem Kahani, Gadar-2, OMG-2, Dream Girl-2, Jawan) and Regional (Jailor, Bhola Shankar and Salaar) front we do not expect any major content related risk for PVR-Inox. Retain BUY on the stock with a TP of Rs1,704 (14.5x Sep-24E EBITDA).

PVR Inox (PVRINOX IN)

Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs1,483 | TP: Rs1,704

Key Financials - Consolidated


Y/e Mar FY22 FY23 FY24E FY25E
Sales (Rs. m) 13,310 37,507 65,649 75,297
EBITDA (Rs. m) 1,057 10,477 21,959 25,815
Margin (%) 7.9 27.9 33.4 34.3
PAT (Rs. m) -4,882 -3,243 3,254 5,786
EPS (Rs.) -80.1 -33.1 33.2 59.1
Gr. (%) NA NA NA 77.8
DPS (Rs.) - - 2.5 2.5
Yield (%) - - 0.2 0.2
RoE (%) NA NA 4.3 7.1
RoCE (%) NA 2 7.1 9.1
EV/Sales (x) 10.2 5.9 3.4 3
EV/EBITDA (x) 128.9 21.2 10.2 8.6
PE (x) NA NA 44.6 25.1
P/BV (x) 6.6 2 1.9 1.8



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