PHDCCI sees India’s GDP over $5 trn in FY25

New Delhi: India’s economy is likely to surpass $4 trillion in 2024-25 and further escalate to $5 trillion by 2026-27, according to a PHDCCI report released on Wednesday.The industry chamber also expects the RBI to cut the repo rate by 100 basis points in a calibrated manner by the end of 2024.

“The Indian economy is showing evidence of strong growth. It is imperative that there is a need to remain watchful and adaptable in the coming days to mitigate the dangers presented by the global economy through carefully calibrated policy actions,” the report stated.

Observing that despite global challenges, India's economy remains resilient, the report said the country is poised to attain the status of a developed economy by 2047 under the initiative of ‘Viksit Bharat’. “India is making significant strides for its futuristic growth trajectory. (Indian economy is) anticipated to surpass $4 trillion in the financial year 2024-25 and further escalate to $5 trillion by the financial year 2026-27,” the report said.

Elaborating upon the various steps to accelerate economic growth further, Deputy Secretary General at PHDCCI SP Sharma said the government should focus more on the informal sector because sometimes the reforms are not percolated at the ground level. He further said the banking system needs to become more robust to help small businesses so that they are able to expand their capacities according to the demand trajectory.

The analysis is based on lead macroeconomic indicators, including GDP Growth, Export Growth, Gross National Savings, Total Investments and Debt of GDP Ratio. The analysis for the report has been conducted for four sets of time periods, Pre Pandemic Years (2018, 2019), Pandemic Years (2020, 2021), Post Pandemic Years (2022,2023) and Futuristic Outlook Years (2024,2025).

Ranking of the lead economic indicators has been observed in these four periods, said the Industry body PHDCCI. With regards to retail inflation, the report estimated that it is expected to be around 4.5 per cent on average in 2024. The Reserve Bank of India is likely to cut the repo rate by 100 basis points to bring it to the level of 5.5 per cent by the end of 2024, said PHDCCI. The industry body has also identified growth promising sectors, including Agriculture and food processing, Infrastructure, Textile and Apparel, Pharmaceutical, Defence Manufacturing, Electronics and Fintech.