PL Sector Report - Agro Chemicals & Fertilisers - Weekly Update – Crop acreages remain flat YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 28th June’23- Deficit largely narrowed down; Fertilizer RM prices continue to slide downward
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd
Agro Chemicals & Fertilisers - Himanshu Binani - Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd
Weekly Update – Crop acreages remain flat YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 28th June’23- Deficit largely narrowed down; Fertilizer RM prices continue to slide downward
§ Crop Acreages as on 30th June’23: Decent improvement on a WoW basis; Flat YoY (+0.4% YoY)
§ Rainfall as on 28th June’23: Deficit narrowed down largely due to better rains during the last week
§ Water Reservoir table as on 30th June’23: Flat YoY
§ Weekly Crop Prices: Crop Prices continues to be remunerative
§ Fertilizer Raw Material Prices: Continue to slide downward
§ Cumulative Monsoon till 28th June’23: Monsoons covers entire India narrowing down the deficit
§ India’s fertilizer subsidy may drop below Budget Estimate of Rs1.75-lakh-cr
§ Urea subsidy: Govt approves schemes worth Rs 3.70 lakh cr for well-being of farmers, organic farming
§ Scanty rains hit kharif crop sowing
§ Economists concerned over lower rice acreage pushing up inflation
§ Cabinet hikes sugarcane FRP by Rs 10 to Rs 315/quintal for 2023-24 season
Exhibit 1: Crop Acreages as on 30th June’23: Decent improvement on a WoW basis; Flat YoY (+0.4% YoY)
| (Lac Ha) | Till 23rd June | Till 30th June | |||||
| Crops | In 2023 | In 2022 | YoY % | In 2023 | In 2022 | YoY % | WoW% |
| Rice | 10.8 | 16.5 | -34.60% | 26.6 | 36.1 | -26.30% | 146.60% |
| Pulses | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.80% | 18.2 | 18.5 | -1.90% | 177.50% |
| Coarse Cereals | 18.5 | 13.4 | 37.90% | 36.2 | 22.4 | 61.70% | 96.40% |
| Oilseeds | 9.2 | 9.5 | -3.30% | 21.6 | 18.8 | 14.60% | 134.00% |
| Sugarcane | 50.8 | 50.7 | 0.00% | 54.4 | 52.9 | 2.80% | 7.20% |
| Jute & Mesta | 5.8 | 6.6 | -12.20% | 5.8 | 6.6 | -11.80% | 0.70% |
| Cotton | 28 | 32.7 | -14.20% | 40.5 | 47 | -13.90% | 44.50% |
| Total | 129.5 | 135.6 | -4.50% | 203.2 | 202.3 | 0.40% | 56.90% |
| Incremental WoW | 73.7 | 66.7 | -9.50% | ||||
Source: Agricoop, PL
Exhibit 2: Rainfall as on 28th June’23: Deficit narrowed down largely due to better rains during the last week
| Week ending Date | % Deviation from Normal | ||||
| Country as a whole | Northwest India | Central India | South Peninsula | Northeast & East India | |
| 31-May-23 | 22 | 337 | 13 | -24 | -45 |
| 07-Jun-23 | -57 | 69 | -71 | -63 | -84 |
| 14-Jun-23 | -49 | -75 | -73 | -48 | -18 |
| 21-Jun-23 | -6 | 108 | -47 | -63 | 30 |
Source: IMD, PL
Exhibit 3: Water Reservoir table as on 30th June’23: Flat YoY
| Reservoir levels | Current Year | Last Year | Avg. of last 10 years |
| All India | 27% | 28% | 24% |
| North India | 43% | 23% | 31% |
| East India | 19% | 17% | 24% |
| West India | 24% | 24% | 21% |
| Central India | 34% | 28% | 27% |
| South India | 20% | 35% | 23% |
Source: CWC, PL
Exhibit 4: Weekly Crop Prices: Crop Prices continues to be remunerative
| Crops(RS/Qntl) | 2nd Week June'23 | 3rd Week June'23 | 4th Week June'23 | 4th Week June'22 | YoY(%) | WoW(%) | Avg. June'23 | Change(%) |
| Wheat | 2,617 | 2,584 | 2,584 | 2,309 | 11.90% | 0.00% | 2,568 | 0.60% |
| Jowar(Sorghum) | 3,592 | 3,410 | 3,542 | 2,676 | 32.40% | 3.90% | 3,282 | 7.90% |
| Bajra(Pearl Millet) | 2,215 | 2,149 | 2,139 | 2,138 | 0.00% | -0.50% | 2,158 | -0.90% |
| Arhar Dal (Tur) | 11,950 | 10,714 | 12,522 | 7,980 | 56.90% | 16.90% | 10,254 | 22.10% |
| Maize | 1,889 | 2,062 | 2,113 | 2,268 | -6.90% | 2.50% | 1,953 | 8.20% |
| Green Gram Dal | 9,504 | 9,164 | 8,917 | 7,875 | 13.20% | -2.70% | 8,907 | 0.10% |
| Black Gram Urd beans | 8,394 | 8,420 | 8,117 | 6,859 | 18.30% | -3.60% | 8,136 | -0.20% |
| Cotton | 6,987 | 6,917 | 6,595 | 9,724 | -32.20% | -4.70% | 6,783 | -2.80% |
| Soybean | 4,615 | 4,773 | 4,671 | 6,082 | -23.20% | -2.10% | 4,612 | 1.30% |
| Paddy(Dhan) | 2,204 | 2,251 | 2,206 | 2,127 | 3.70% | -2.00% | 2,227 | -0.90% |
Source: Agmarkweb, PLMayuresh Rawte