PL Sector Report: Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers - Weekly Update – Crop acreages marginally up +0.3% YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 20th Sep’23 down 7% YoY
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd
Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers - Swarnendu Bhushan - Co-Head of Research, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd
Weekly Update – Crop acreages marginally up +0.3% YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 20th Sep’23 down 7% YoY
§ Crop Acreages as on 22nd Sep’23: marginally up +0.3% YoY.
§ Rainfall as on 20th Sep’23 down 7% YoY
§ Water Reservoir levels as on 21st Sep’23- down 19% YoY; South India remains lower
§ Sugar production expected to improve die to good rains in September
§ Paddy acreage up 3% to 411.52 lakh hectares so far this kharif sowing season, pulses area down 5%.
§ Global agri science major FMC corporation set to introduce new wheat herbicide in India.
§ EU discussing approval of Roundup glyphosate for another ten years.
Exhibit 1: Crop Acreages as on 22nd Sep’23; marginally up +0.3%YoY
(Lac Ha) | Till 15th Sep | Till 22nd Sep | |||||
Crops | In 2023 | In 2022 | YoY % | In 2023 | In 2022 | YoY % | WoW% |
Rice | 409.4 | 398.6 | 2.7% | 411.5 | 400.7 | 2.7% | 0.5% |
Pulses | 121.0 | 127.6 | -5.2% | 122.6 | 128.5 | -4.6% | 1.3% |
Coarse Cereals | 183.1 | 181.5 | 0.9% | 186.1 | 183.7 | 1.3% | 1.6% |
Oilseeds | 192.2 | 194.3 | -1.1% | 192.9 | 196.1 | -1.6% | 0.4% |
Sugarcane | 59.9 | 55.7 | 7.7% | 59.9 | 55.7 | 7.6% | 0.0% |
Jute & Mesta | 6.6 | 7.0 | -5.7% | 6.6 | 7.0 | -5.6% | 0.2% |
Cotton | 123.2 | 127.3 | -3.2% | 123.4 | 127.6 | -3.3% | 0.2% |
Total | 1095.4 | 1091.9 | 0.3% | 1103.0 | 1099.2 | 0.3% | 0.7% |
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Incremental WoW | 6.9 | 3.9 | -44.2% | 7.6 | 7.3 | -2.8% | |
Source: Agricoop, PL
Exhibit 2: Rainfall deficit as on 20th Sep’23; down 7% YoY
Week ending Date | % Deviation from Normal | ||||
Country as a whole | Northwest India | Central India | South Peninsula | Northeast & East India | |
31-May-23 | 22.0 | 337.0 | 13.0 | (24.0) | (45.0) |
07-Jun-23 | (57.0) | 69.0 | (71.0) | (63.0) | (84.0) |
14-Jun-23 | (53.0) | (20.0) | (73.0) | (54.0) | (48.0) |
21-Jun-23 | (33.0) | 37.0 | (60.0) | (58.0) | (18.0) |
28-Jun-23 | (16.0) | 42.0 | (17.0) | (45.0) | (21.0) |
05-July-23 | (7.0) | 37.0 | (6.0) | (32.0) | (17.0) |
12-July-23 | 2.0 | 59.0 | 4.0 | (23.0) | (19.0) |
19-July-23 | 2.0 | 46.0 | 8.0 | (19.0) | (19.0) |
26-July-23 | 5.0 | 34.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | (25.0) |
02-Aug-23 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | (24.0) |
09-Aug-23 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 7.0 | (7.0) | (19.0) |
16-Aug-23 | (6.0) | 10.0 | (3.0) | (12.0) | (19.0) |
23-Aug-23 | (7.0) | 8.0 | (4.0) | (15.0) | (19.0) |
30-Aug-23 | (9.0) | 4.0 | (10.0) | (17.0) | (16.0) |
06-Sep-23 | (11.0) | (2.0) | (12.0) | (11.0) | (19.0) |
13-Sep-23 | (10.0) | (1.0) | (9.0) | (10.0) | (19.0) |
20-Sep-23 | (7.0) | 2.0 | (3.0) | (11.0) | (21.0) |
Source: IMD, PL
Exhibit 3: Water Reservoir table as on 21st Sep’23: down 19% YoY; South India remains lower
Reservoir levels | Current Year | Last Year | Avg. of last 10 years |
All India | 71% | 88% | 77% |
North India | 87% | 86% | 80% |
East India | 65% | 72% | 73% |
West India | 84% | 95% | 76% |
Central India | 82% | 85% | 82% |
South India | 48% | 92% | 72% |
Source: CWC, PL
Exhibit 4: Weekly Crop Prices continues to be remunerative YoY barring Cotton, Soybean and paddy.
Crops(RS/Qntl) | 2nd Week Sep'23 | 3rd Week Sep'23 | 4th Week Sep'23 | 4th Week Sep'22 | YoY(%) | WoW(%) | Avg. Aug'23 | Change(%) |
Wheat | 2,557 | 2,591 | 2,475 | 2,404 | 2.9% | -4.5% | 3,353 | -26.2% |
Jowar(Sorghum) | 3,256 | 3,577 | 3,000 | 2,459 | 22.0% | -16.1% | 3,395 | -11.6% |
Bajra(Pearl Millet) | 2,350 | 2,399 | 2,117 | 2,007 | 5.4% | -11.8% | 2,200 | -3.8% |
Arhar Dal (Tur) | 12,543 | 14,020 | 13,988 | 9,281 | 50.7% | -0.2% | 22,528 | -37.9% |
Maize | 2,464 | 2,487 | 2,096 | 2,001 | 4.7% | -15.7% | 3,189 | -34.3% |
Green Gram Dal | 10,033 | 10,589 | 9,772 | 8,009 | 22.0% | -7.7% | 18,271 | -46.5% |
Black Gram Urd beans | 9,089 | 8,728 | 8,274 | 7,011 |