PL Sector Update - Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers - Weekly Update - Crop acreages marginally up +0.3% YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 13th Sep'23 down 10% YoY
Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd
Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers – Swarnendu Bhushan – Co Head of Research, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd
Weekly Update – Crop acreages marginally up +0.3% YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 13th Sep’23 down 10% YoY
§ Crop Acreages as on 15th Sep’23: marginally up +0.3% YoY.
§ Rainfall as on 13th Sep’23 down 10% YoY
§ Water Reservoir levels as on 14th Sep’23- down 23% YoY; South India remains lower
§ Russian sellers stop fertilizer discount to India, sources say
§ Kharif rice production unlikely to fall but pulses, oilseeds output may drop on lower acreage
§ Dhanuka Agritech introduces ‘Tizom’ herbicide for sugarcane
§ As with soybeans and corn, Brazil ready to unseat US as world's top cotton exporter
Exhibit 1: Crop Acreages as on 15th Sep’23; marginally up +0.3%YoY
(Lac Ha) | Till 08th Sep | Till 15th Sep | |||||
Crops | In 2023 | In 2023 | YoY % | In 2023 | In 2022 | YoY % | WoW% |
Rice | 403.4 | 392.8 | 2.7% | 409.4 | 398.6 | 2.7% | 1.5% |
Pulses | 119.9 | 131.2 | -8.6% | 121.0 | 127.6 | -5.2% | 0.9% |
Coarse Cereals | 182.2 | 181.2 | 0.5% | 183.1 | 181.5 | 0.9% | 0.5% |
Oilseeds | 191.5 | 193.3 | -0.9% | 192.2 | 194.3 | -1.1% | 0.4% |
Sugarcane | 59.9 | 55.7 | 7.7% | 59.9 | 55.7 | 7.7% | 0.0% |
Jute & Mesta | 6.6 | 7.0 | -5.7% | 6.6 | 7.0 | -5.7% | 0.2% |
Cotton | 125.0 | 126.9 | -1.5% | 123.2 | 127.3 | -3.2% | -1.4% |
Total | 1088.5 | 1088.0 | 0.0% | 1095.4 | 1091.9 | 0.3% | 0.6% |
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Incremental WoW | 10.7 | 14.8 | 38.4% | 6.9 | 3.9 | -44.2% | |
Source: Agricoop, PL
Exhibit 2: Rainfall as on 13th Sep’23 down 10% YoY
Week ending Date | % Deviation from Normal | ||||
Country as a whole | Northwest India | Central India | South Peninsula | Northeast & East India | |
31-May-23 | 22.0 | 337.0 | 13.0 | (24.0) | (45.0) |
07-Jun-23 | (57.0) | 69.0 | (71.0) | (63.0) | (84.0) |
14-Jun-23 | (53.0) | (20.0) | (73.0) | (54.0) | (48.0) |
21-Jun-23 | (33.0) | 37.0 | (60.0) | (58.0) | (18.0) |
28-Jun-23 | (16.0) | 42.0 | (17.0) | (45.0) | (21.0) |
05-July-23 | (7.0) | 37.0 | (6.0) | (32.0) | (17.0) |
12-July-23 | 2.0 | 59.0 | 4.0 | (23.0) | (19.0) |
19-July-23 | 2.0 | 46.0 | 8.0 | (19.0) | (19.0) |
26-July-23 | 5.0 | 34.0 | 14.0 | 2.0 | (25.0) |
02-Aug-23 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 13.0 | 2.0 | (24.0) |
09-Aug-23 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 7.0 | (7.0) | (19.0) |
16-Aug-23 | (6.0) | 10.0 | (3.0) | (12.0) | (19.0) |
23-Aug-23 | (7.0) | 8.0 | (4.0) | (15.0) | (19.0) |
30-Aug-23 | (9.0) | 4.0 | (10.0) | (17.0) | (16.0) |
06-Sep-23 | (11.0) | (2.0) | (12.0) | (11.0) | (19.0) |
13-Sep-23 | (10.0) | (1.0) | (9.0) | (10.0) | (19.0) |
Source: IMD, PL
Exhibit 3: Water Reservoir table as on 14th Sep’23: down 23% YoY; South India remains lower
Reservoir levels | Current Year | Last Year | Avg. of last 10 years |
All India | 66% | 86% | 74% |
North India | 81% | 86% | 82% |
East India | 59% | 65% | 69% |
West India | 74% | 92% | 73% |
Central India | 76% | 82% | 79% |
South India | 48% | 92% | 71% |
Source: CWC, PL
Exhibit 4: Weekly Crop Prices continues to be remunerative YoY.
Crops(RS/Qntl) | 1st Week Sep'23 | 2nd Week Sep'23 | 3rd Week Sep'23 | 3rd Week Sep'22 | YoY(%) | WoW(%) | Avg. Aug'23 | Change (%) |
Wheat | 2,569 | 2,557 | 2,601 | 2,472 | 5.2% | 1.7% | 3,353 | -22.4% |
Jowar (Sorghum) | 3,366 | 3,256 | 3,527 | 2,361 | 49.4% | 8.3% | 3,395 | 3.9% |
Bajra (Pearl Millet) | 2,175 | 2,350 | 2,379 | 1,907 | 24.8% | 1.3% | 2,200 | 8.2% |