Spreads of India steel players likely to be under pressure driven by lower realisations

New Delhi: Indian steel markets witnessed an unexpectedly soft quarter with average prices down 3-4 per cent sequentially, domestic brokerage firm JM Financial Institutional Securities said.

Spreads of India steel players are likely to be under pressure in 4QFY24 driven by lower realisations and higher coking coal consumption cost, the brokerage said.

"Consequently, we estimate an EBITDA margin compression of Rs 1.5k+/ton QoQ. Volume growth in the seasonally strong quarter is likely to be sequentially higher," it said.

Working capital requirements is likely to offer some relief as steel / raw material prices trend down leading to better chances of net debt reduction.

Global steel making raw materials finally relented – spot coking coal down at US$270/t (down sharply by US$60/t from peak), iron ore at ~US$100/t (down US$25/t from recent peak) driven by subdued Chinese demand outlook China domestic HRC prices declined by US$50/t from recent peak to US$521/t driven by higher inventories (up sharply in Feb end) and subdued demand.

Chinese rebar prices corrected US$30/t from peak to US$550/t in tandem with the broader markets. China’s steel exports continued to edge up in Jan/Feb, further pressurising global markets cum prices, the brokerage said.