Are non-BJP parties targeting Presidential election?

Why has the opposition gone hyperactive in its efforts to form a front promising Swarna Bharat and BJP-mukt Bharat? Is the first fight going to be on Presidential election? If the thinking in the political circles is any indication, this seems to be the first step towards forming an anti-BJP forum or front.

The non-BJP parties are of the strong feeling that the BJP would face a severe drubbing in the assembly elections to the five states which are under progress. This, according to them, would alter the strength of BJP v/s Opposition in Rajya Sabha and that could adversely impact the elections to the post of President of India which is scheduled to be held in June or July. The opposition parties feel that BJP may not get more than 150 seats in the UP Assembly which has 403 seats.

If the BJP fails to come to power in at least three out of five states including UP, it may not be placed comfortably in the Presidential election. It is in this context, the election results of UP and Uttarakhand assumes importance. If this happens, it would give a boost to the moves of the anti-BJP parties to form a new front. The President is indirectly elected by an electoral college consisting of the elected members of both the Houses of Parliament and the Assemblies.

The electoral colleges comprise of 776 MPs of both the Houses and 4,120 MLAs of all the states and Union Territories. The electoral college has 1,098,903 votes, and a majority is 549,452 votes. As far as the value of votes is concerned, Uttar Pradesh has the highest number of votes, approximately 83,824 followed by Maharashtra and West Bengal.

Any reduction of seats will put the game in the opposition camp and if the Chief Minister of different regional parties join hands and put a joint candidate, the BJP may find it difficult to get its nominee elected unless there is division in the opposition camp or they are able to identify candidates like Abdul Kalam or Pratibha Patil.

West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, Telangana CM K Chandrasekhar Rao and Maharashtra CM Uddhav Thackeray are keen to expand their footprints at national level. The southern states and Maharashtra account for more than 200 Lok Sabha seats and almost half of the electoral college which could be crucial in the next Presidential poll.

While it is too early to speculate as to who could be the opposition choice as candidate for President, Chief Ministers coming together en bloc is not a good sign for the Congress. It stands the risk of getting isolated. This will put the BJP also in a tight spot as it will have to search for a consensus candidate for the Presidential poll.

In case, BJP gets enough seats and if its position is not so badly altered in Rajya Sabha, then what would the non-BJP parties do? The second option is to rake up local sentiments in each State ruled by non-BJP parties as is evident from the way the Chief Minister and TRS leaders have been speaking at various forums. To what extent they would be successful time will tell.