BJP raises pitch to improve fortunes in south

The 2024 general elections are one of the most consequential in India’s history and will test the limits of Modi’s political dominance. If Modi becomes the PM again he will be the second Indian leader to retain power for a third consecutive term, after Jawaharlal Nehru. Most poll surveys predict the Modi 3.0 government. But the opposition alliance is not clear who will lead India if bloc INDIA wins: Kharge, K C Venugopal or Rahul Gandhi?

Some say that the first phase of polls sets the tone for the remaining phases of voting. But that may not be true in the Indian context. The level of support base is different in different parts of the country. BJP has stronger base in north than in southern states. In south for decades, it was the regional parties which had gained strong ground and national parties like Congress have been pushed into background. Even the 2019 elections had seen a keen contest between the NDA and the Congress and both sides had won 46 seats each in these constituencies. It now remains to be seen who would gain and who would lose. This presents an interesting case study as the poll turnout was less than that last time.

Analysts feel that in terms of vote share, the NDA may have better edge over the bloc INDIA. The expectation is that NDA may get about 44% vote share as against 38% of opposition bloc. Western UP has eight Lok Sabha seats which went to polls during the first phase of polling. Five of them were held by the BSP. Hence, stakes are high for BSP for defending these seats. But there are serious doubts if it can retain them, and if it loses these seats, who would benefit? Samajwadi party or BJP? In 2019, the BSP was in alliance with Samajwadi Party while this time it is contesting on its own. On the other hand, the Samajwadi party led by Akhilesh Yadav has joined the I.N.D.I.A bloc.

If we look at Tamil Nadu the BJP put in all out efforts to make inroads and even thePrime Minister Narendra Modivisited the state many times, held road shows and addressed several meetings and even agreed to allow Telangana Governor Tamilisai Soundararajan to resign from her post, and fielded her from Chennai. The high voltage campaign was led by its firebrand leader Annamalai. This led to a three-way contest in Tamil Nadu.

The ruling DMK had formed an alliance with Congress, CPI, CPM, Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Catch (VCC), IUML and MDMK (Marnamalachari Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam) while the AIADMK formed an alliance with Puthiya Tamilagam (PT), Social Democratic Party of India, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) while the BJP formed alliance with Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi, Inthiya Makkal Kalvi Munnetra Kazhagam, Puthiya Needhi Katchi, Amma Makkal Munnettra Kazagam, Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, Tamil Maanila Congress (Moopanar), and Pattali Makkal Katchi

To what extent people will give up their traditional vote swing from DMK to AIADMK and vice versa and accommodate BJP needs to be seen. BJP feels that the absence of leaders like Jayalalithaa had created political space for the saffron party and hence they are testing the waters. In Telangana, too, with 20 days left for polling, the party hopes to emerge as number two as far as Lok Sabha elections are concerned. If the present situation is any indication, the saffron party certainly seems to be ahead of the BRS.