BJP remains front runner for 2024

Has the political narrative changed after the hat trick victory of BJP in the three Hindi heartland State’s? What do the results indicate? Will there be a multiparty coalition at centre or single party dominance for next five years? Well these questions assume importance in the wake of fast approaching general elections to the Lok Sabha.

If the present developments are any indication, the BJP appears to be turbocharged in the Northern states and is the front runner for 2024. Even the Fitch Ratings (An American credit rating agency, one of the “Big Three credit rating agencies”), said that there is likelihood of policy continuity to be maintained in India as the incumbent administration is “most likely” to retain power in the general elections.

While it certainly seems to be going strong in the Northern part of the country, in the South the situation appears to be different. The BJP does not have the numbers and surprisingly, the Congress which has been losing North had gained in South particularly Karnataka and Telangana.

In Tamil Nadu it would be a fight between the DMK and AIADMK and BJP which had broken ties with AIADMK hardly has any space there. Even Modi’s chemistry may not work in the South. South accounts for 130 Lok Sabha seats of which BJP has 29. But it may not be able to retain this number during this election.

In Telangana indications are that despite all out efforts by BJP, the saffron party may find it difficult to bounce back. Telangana accounts for 17 Lok Sabha seats. At present the BJP has 4 MPs but if trends are any indication, it may face trouble in two out the four seats it holds now.

When Congress party won over 400 seats immediately after the assassination of Indira Gandhi, it had got a vote percent of about 47 percent. The BJP in 2019 got 303 seats with 37 percent vote share. This time the NDA alliance led by BJP has set a target of 50 percent. If Modi succeeds in getting a hat trick, he would be in the league of Nehru who had won thrice, 1951, 1957 and 1962.

The advantage BJP has particularly in the North is strong micromanagement of polls. It has a unique system of poll management. The saffron party first takes up mapping of workers, leaders and their functioning and all the polling booths. It makes best use of WhatsApp groups to get in touch with the voters. On polling day, it would first give wake up calls to the party workers who ensure that the voters go to the polling booth. This strategy has helped the party in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh. BJP this time is laying special focus on Maharashtra and Haryana. In Maharashtra it is not confident about its coalition partner, the breakaway faction of the Shiv Sena.

It needs to be watched as to how effective the INDIA alliance would emerge. It thought of making caste census as its slogan. The BJP has come up with counter slogan of four castes, Women, Poor, Youth and Farmers. Unless bloc INDIA can work out seat sharing state wise and jump into the field by January, it may not be able to give the kind of fight it wants to put up to defeat BJP.

Eastern India is also a matter of high concern for BJP which has 54 MPs out of 117 Lok Sabha seats. If Mamata can strike a proper deal with I.N.D.I.A BJP may find it difficult to retain the18 seats it has now in West Bengal which accounts for 42 LS seats. The BJP once again would depend more on Modi’s chemistry and popularity, his personality and narrative to drum up the delight