Challenges galore for BJP for 2024 win

The BJP's central team is said to be highly unhappy with the leadership yielding ground to the Opposition in Karnataka. In fact, its dilemma here is no different from that of Rajasthan where former Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje still calls the shots.

Rajasthan should go to the BJP in the next elections going by its 'rotational preference' of voters. Yet, it is wary of the Congress Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot's ingenuity and control over his party despite the irritations posed by his deputy Sachin Pilot. The latter is a weakling and is in no position to take on Gehlot despite serious differences with him. Moreover, Gehlot, without leaving any room for doubts, has made it clear to his high command that he is the master of all that he purveys in the State. Even a maverick like Rahul Gandhi has no influence over him.

Ashok Gehlot has yet another advantage. He and Vasundhara are good friends and know the 'alternatives/choices' just in case. The BJP is definitely on a weak ground in this regard. Yet, the party hopes to scrape through somehow in the next elections. The other question staring into its face is Karnataka in the South with 28 seats. Removal of Yediyurappa from the post of Chief Minister and replacing him with Bommai has not been beneficial to the party much. Bommai could neither make his mark politically nor administratively. In addition, he has earned his government the dubious distinction of 40 per cent government. This is why the BJP is either flummoxed or unable to handle the Lingayats despite Bommai, a Lingayat, heading the party.

In the BJP's scheme of things, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka are crucial to retain Modi's power for the third term. Even in Madhya Pradesh, the Chief Minister seems to be floundering. Maharashtra is in a flux and the BJP leadership could always swing back to the Thackerays. At least it will make an attempt as it does not seem to be confident about the Shinde factor. Thackeray could have entered into an agreement with the Ambedkarites to forge a strong alliance and the others of the Maha Vikas Aghadi could be OK with it; still, the earlier bonhomie could be missing amongst the partners. As for the next general elections of 2024, the divide between the majority and minority could only increase queering the pitch for the Thackerays here. After all, Maharashtra has 48 MP seats. No mean number this is for the BJP to toss away any chances.

Similarly, in Karnataka, if the BJP is really looking to humour up someone, it could only be Kumaraswamy despite his recent overtures vis-a-vis KCR of the Bharat Rashtra Samiti. Karnataka is one state where the BJP central leadership leaves the State leadership in a limbo when it comes to drawing alliances and Bommai would have no say over it. Moreover, the party is heavily dependent on the yield from the communal issues here. The BJP will only be banking on a state-specific policy in all the coming days in these States in view of the existing exigencies.