Congress throws down gauntlet to BJP in MP

All does not seem to be well for the saffron party in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The party which was sure of coming to power in Rajasthan is now struggling to elbow out the Congress party. In Madhya Pradesh, too, it is going to be very tough fight between Kamalnath and Shivraj Singh Chauhan. However, what needs to be noted here is that the fight in both States is not going to be between the BJP and I.N.D.I.A… It will be a direct contest between Lotus and Hand.

Madhya Pradesh has been the BJP bastion for past 15 years. After all, it’s the only other state aside from Gujarat where the party has been in power for a long time. In fact, before BJP came into existence, Jana Sangh had deep roots in this state. The big question now is whether the BJP ruling the state since 2003 barring 2018-2020 will be able to return to power or not. Some pollsters feel that the vote share majority between the BJP and the Congress may be very narrow – around two per cent this time.

The anti-incumbency factor certainly is high. If one looks at the developments, it is very clear that present Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan will not be retained even if the BJP gets enough majority to form government. The very fact that the BJP has put all its heavy weight leaders on campaign trail and the frequent visits of PM show that it is going to be the biggest battle of votes which will keep the atmosphere hot during chilly winter in December.

Here again, Modi who has been frequenting the states is making the same points with minor variations in every state depending on the local conditions. The kind of ‘Josh’ that his speeches used to generate seems to be missing this time. The opinion polls indicate that anti-incumbency factor would play key role and the Lotus party may get about 42 per cent of the vote share while Congress may get around 42 per cent. This indicates that the possibility of a hung assembly cannot be ruled out. The situation is so tough that it would not be surprising if the saffron party falls short of absolute majority by a few seats.

This has made BJP re-work its strategies and include sitting MLAs in the second list. The BJP certainly was in an advantageous position in June-July but now it is different. Many surveys indicate that in Gwalior and Chambal region, out of 38 Assembly seats BJP may not get more than 8 seats. In Central Madhya Pradesh, which has 36 seats, it may get 22 to 24 seats while Congress is likely to win 12 to 14 seats. The strongest area for the BJP is the Vindhya region which has 30 seats. Surveys indicate that BJP may get around 20 or 21 seats while Congress may win around 9 to 10 seats.

BJP, however, claims that it is yet to pull out all its cards and would certainly be back in power. Congress is equally confident and feels that this time not only in MP but in Rajasthan and Telangana also, it would show its strength and would come to power. The next three months are certainly going to be interesting, and entertaining, too.