Israel and Iran must give peace a chance
Israel which had vowed ‘enough is enough’ in the aftermath of a brutal terrorist attack by Hamas on October 7 last year has dealt a body blow to Hezbollah, the most powerful militant and political force in Lebanon, by eliminating its head Hassan Nasrallah, who had been a global figurehead of anti-Israel resistance for decades. He had been a prime target of Israel since the last Lebanon War of 2008. Now, Hezbollah, considered the vital part of the Axis of Resistance, is leaderless, and thus rudderless.
Given Hezbollah’s precarious state, the tantalising question that is doing rounds is whether Hezbollah, and thus Iran, will back down - and if a ceasefire is in sight. Nasrallah’s assassination has huge implications for peace in the entire Middle East region. However, his demise may only keep Hezbollah lying down for a while. It cannot be written off. Collapse is especially unlikely as it is well-entrenched organization with a strong ideology. Wounded but not destroyed, it may not be long before Hezbollah tries to avenge Nasrallah by raining a barrage of missiles on Israel to keep its people from returning to northern region. Netanyahu stakes his political fortunes on this.
A more formidable leader may take over Hezbollah as was the case after the death of the former Hezbollah leader Abbas al Musawi in 1992. Nasrallah, who succeeded him, grew up under sway of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution. He transformed Hezbollah into one of the most powerful para-military groups in the world. With the backing of Iran, he was the force behind cropping up of Shia militias in Iraq and Yemen. He held a grave threat to Israel after he procured long-range missiles and rockets from Iran. His killing greatly bolsters the morale of the IDF which can claim to have broken the back of its arch-rival’s (Iran) proxy.
Analysts are now brainstorming if Israel will still go ahead with a ground invasion of southern Lebanon or persist with its airstrikes to seek and destroy Hezbollah men and their arsenal. However, such a pursuit of Hezbollah targets may remain tricky given the vast extent of its tunnel networks, dedicated cadres and a strong backing from Iran. The war, if at all, is likely to be become more prolonged.
Meanwhile, with thousands of its citizens fleeing northern Israel in wake of Hezbollah strikes, Israel’s main task remains unaccomplished. Its bombarding Lebanon may go on till Netanyahu gets war-weary and domestic pressures mount or until breakthrough on hostage issue. It is an opportune time for the international community should it desire to prevail upon Tel Aviv to agree for ceasefire. It will help the Lebanese government shake off Hezbollah’s vice-like grip and reclaim sovereignty over the entire land, which will foil Hezbollah recovery and avert any attacks on Israel soil. But, Israel may not relent as long as Hamas and Hezbollah pursue their genocidal goals of annihilating Israel.
Peace is unlikely to return to Gaza till Hamas frees hostages and a ceasefire is reached. Now is the time to ensure the protection of the Palestinian people. But how? For peace to return and be long-lasting, the west, mainly the US, must use its leverage with Israel for a Palestinian government in Gaza and also for Gaza reconstruction with the help of regional Arab powers. Israel’s decades-long impunity in occupation of Palestine territories and disruption of status quo is its own worst enemy. A resumption of the two-state solution talks will only cement the efforts for a long-lasting peace in Middle East. Iran, for its part, should rein in its proxies to facilitate a diplomatic solution to the Palestine issue. No country, including Iran, benefits from escalation of the war.