The political lessons from Bihar polls

Nitish should be thanking Shiv Sena for getting yet another chance to administer the State for the fourth consecutive time before he retires since the BJP has decided that it will not re-enact the high drama it did in Maharashtra. The senior BJP leader and Bihar Deputy Chief Minister Sushil Modi on Wednesday said that there is no question of replacing Nitish Kumar as Bihar Chief Minister. This has put to rest all speculations that BJP being the single largest party may stake claim to have its own CM.

But then politics is a dynamic situation. Though for the present the BJP says that there is no confusion on this as some win more and some win less and all are equal partners, the big question is will BJP which had never ruled the state of Bihar remain out of power? JD (U) minus Nitish may not be able to win as many seats as it won this time.

In fact Nitish in his last election campaign speech had said 'Anth bhala toh sab bhala' (All is well that ends well). So the NDA cannot hope to have a strong partner in the next elections. Speculations are making rounds that though the BJP had strategically taken one step backward and made it clear that Nitish will be the Chief Minister, it would after sometime may draft Nitish into the Central Cabinet, give him some important portfolio and install BJP candidate in place of Nitish.

One thing that needs to be noted in the Bihar election is that despite all odds and being branded as a party that would bring back 'Jungle Raj', RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav did give a spirited fight. Even if he could not become the Chief Minister, he has certainly emerged as the man of the match. If he succeeds in playing his cards carefully and proves that he is different from his father, there is a possibility that he can again give a tough fight to BJP and its allies in next elections.

The BJP should understand that what it calls as stellar performance by saffron party was more because Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself had campaigned for the NDA. While the opposition alliance led by Tejaswi Yadav had no such prominent face. It was in fact two stalwarts- Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was Chief Minister for Gujarat for several years and Nitish Kumar who was CM for three terms- on one side and inexperienced Tejaswi Yadav on other side.

Hence the BJP should understand that the road ahead in Bihar is not so smooth. That is why political analysts feel that Nitish may not last his full term as Chief Minister. This argument sounds logical.