We still have a chance to bend the Covid-19 curve

Studies by Indian scientists and Indian-American biostatistician, data scientist, professor and researcher Dr Brahmar Mukherjee of Michigan University indicates that the worse is yet to come. The experts who assessed the current rate of infections and deaths in India a week back said that the pandemic in India is going to get worse in the coming weeks. The results of the study are scary. According to Dr Mukherjee, a peak in the number of new cases reported daily could be around 8-10 lakhs. Daily coronavirus deaths will peak in the second half of May.

But unfortunately, neither the Centre not respective State governments have opened their eyes yet. They continue to show sheer negligence and blow their own trumpet. Many governments, including the two Telugu States, claim that they are working to the maximum extent for public welfare and have embarked on innovative ideas and have gained an understanding of immediate decisions that rulers must make for public good in difficult times on a war footing.

But, at the ground level one notices a sheer negligence on the part of governments and the public. There is nothing like accountability or responsibility. This trend crept in from January, 2021 when Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan declared that the country was in the endgame of COVID-19 pandemic. He lauded the leadership of Prime Minister and said it would be an example to the world. This kind of unbridled optimism both by the Centre and States has pushed the country into being the worst affected one by second wave and India is now in the grip of public health emergency. What we see now is long queues of ambulances, frantic calls for beds, patients gasping for oxygen, drugs sold in black market, crowded cemeteries and shortage of vaccine.

Agreed, second wave was inevitable but its impact could have been lessened if India had followed the international practice of genomic surveillance in January instead of prematurely claiming victory over the scourge. Most epidemiologists project more waves and it is time the governments and the people wake up to the reality and learn to follow self-discipline till everyone gets vaccinated.

Statistics clearly show that self-discipline can reduce the number of cases. We had seen how the curve dipped during the first wave when there was sense of panic among people and strict use of masks and social distancing and lockdown not allowing entry of outsiders into housing complexes was implemented. Even now there is hope of beating back the virus if 95% of people wear masks till the end of April (just five more days left).

Despite the second wave and increase of cases by 71 percent and deaths by 55 percent due to non-adherence to Covid-appropriate behaviour by participating in massive gatherings and refusing to wear face masks, people are non-serious about fighting the pandemic. Added to that there is under-reporting of cases and the restrictions announced by State governments are mostly confined to papers. Though scientists warn that new variants are being found, there is no cogent or clear public health action. It's time the political executive and the people wake up instead of leaving their future to fate.