Anti-incumbency firming up in AP

With clear indications from the Centre that the elections to Lok Sabha and the Andhra Pradesh Assembly would be held towards the end of March or early April, political heat is fast picking up. Notification for polls is expected during the second half of February soon after the vote-on-account budget is passed by the Parliament.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had recently made it clear that the budget to be presented on February 1, 2024 would not have any “spectacular announcement” as it would be a vote-on-account in the run-up to the general elections. “It is a matter of truth that the February 1, 2024 budget that will be announced will just be a vote-on-account because we will be in an election mode. So, the budget that the government presents will just be to meet the expenditure of the government till a new government comes to play,” she said.

As far as the Lok Sabha elections are concerned, following its success in the three Assembly polls Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP has laid out a detailed road map for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It has decided to make implement the strategy it had adopted in the three state Assembly polls, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan where all pollsters predicted neck-to-neck fight and some even felt that BJP at the most may win one out of three states. But the verdict of the people was one-sided in favour of BIP. Enthused by this, the BJP has worked out a three-pronged strategy and is working on mass scale worker and voter mobilisation across the country.

It now has decided to extrapolate the winning formula across the country. From January, it would be focussing on party workers and beneficiary’s welfare schemes. The saffron party which knows that it is strong in the Hindi heartland has decided to lay maximum focus on polarisation of votes in that part of the country. The BJP very well knows that it is not possible for them to enter the Southern part of the country, it does not want to waste its energies in this part. Though it has problems in the Eastern region too, its stakes there are more than the South and hence would try to retain the seats it holds now.

In the just concluded Telangana Assembly elections, the BJP which always wanted Congress-Mukt Bharat suddenly changed its political strategy and allowed the party to lose the ground it had gained. Though it could increase its tally of seats marginally as compared to 2018 elections. BRS whom they supported indirectly lost power. The party is now in a big dilemma regarding its stand in Andhra Pradesh where the political wind seems to be blowing in a reverse direction as compared to 2019. The BJP has been keen on backing Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP. But the Jana Sena chief Pawan Kalyan for long has been making efforts to see that BJP, Jana Sena and TDP should be in alliance. He had been making efforts in that direction and after the change in the state leadership of BJP, it was felt that the saffron party might agree but, somehow, the BJP has been dragging its feet.

As it has now become clear that the possibility of BJP-TDP-Jana Sena alliance is not possible, in a quick move following the “illegal” arrest of TDP national president N Chandrababu Naidu, Pawan Kalyan announced his decision to have alliance with TDP. If political grapevine is to be believed, the BJP would remain a silent observer as far as Andhra Pradesh is concerned though it is not totally cut off from the ruling party.

The BJP which has been observing as to which way the winds are blowing and hence it does not want to burn its fingers as it did in Telangana. It knows well that people in Andhra Pradesh still are not in a mood to trust them and feel that BJP and YSRCP are friends indeed.

The ruling party publicly claims that it would be back in driving seat as it had been rolling cash benefits to a large number of beneficiaries and is confident that they would firmly stand by the YSRCP. But, internally, it seems to be worried about the anti-incumbency factor which certainly is increasing day by day.

That is why Chief Minister on Friday told his ministers that elections were knocking on the doors and the notification would come in February and hence they should work very hard now if party were to come back to power. He also directed them to complete all works by February. The CM is learnt to have told them that since there could be power cuts in March and April, the Centre might issue notification in February itself.

It is also said that Jagan is getting surveys done regularly on which sections are unhappy and which sections are favouring them.

Jagan is also said to believe the party should change at least 50 to 55 sitting MLAs. This is sending a chill down the spine of all MLAs and Ministers. They are now worried about their future. Many leaders in East Godavari district and north coastal area particularly from Srikakulam to Nellore are more worried as they feel that the party graph had gone down.

The YSRCP called some MLAs to Tadepalli, the camp office of the Chief Minister on Friday. This sent ripples among some ministers who started making their own inquiries on who all got phone calls, who would be dropped and who would get tickets etc.

What now remains to be seen is who will set the campaign agenda? Will it be the opposition as it happened in Telangana or the ruling party? While the ruling party is struggling to set its house in order, Jana Sena-TDP combine seems to have started working in the direction of setting the agenda based on basic issues like bad road conditions, international banks cancelling loans for infrastructural works, no freedom to raise their voice or protest, how the government is giving some money as cash benefit by pressing a button and how it is “robbing” the people in different ways.

The YSRCP has raised the issue of local and non-local alleging that Chandrababu Naidu and Pawan are nonlocals and do not stay in AP. The opposition leaders say Jagan is real non-local as all his business activities are in Telangana and Karnataka. He, of course, has palaces in Tadepalli, Hyderabad, Bengaluru and now in Vizag. “We cannot be that kind of locals and we don’t want to be. We are in the hearts of the people,” the TDP and Jana Sena leaders retort.

Amidst this scenario, TDP and Jana Sena are preparing to announce the common manifesto. Jana Sena and TDP have started identifying which are the seats that need to be shared. A meeting of leaders of both these two parties would take place during third week of December. The real joint poll campaign is likely to be kick-start from January, according to TDP national president N Chandrababu Naidu.

The Jana Sena and TDP leaders also said to have discussed the dissent that is brewing in the YSRCP and the possibility of some leaders approaching them. It is learnt that TDP is of clear view that they should be highly selective and should not throw their doors open for migrants.

One thing is clear as far as AP is concerned. Anti-incumbency is visible at the ground level. Before elections in Telangana people used to give high marks to K Chandrasekhar Rao as CM but used to say that their MLA would lose polls. In AP people do not appear to give such high marks to Jagan.

Telangana Assembly elections had proved that cash benefit schemes alone cannot get votes for ruling party. If YSRCP still feels that all the beneficiaries would vote for them then it would mean they are living in a different world.

The real game is beginning now, and it needs to be seen who would pull out what kind of ammunition to defeat each other. Since AP will have to face Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, the game certainly will be very interesting. It could prove to be much more profitable for the Satta market between now and April than what they had seen during Telangana Assembly polls.