Alliance politics: United they failed, divided will they fall?

United they failed and divided they may fall further. The decision of the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal to contest the upcoming by-elections to 11 Assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh on their own is likely to give a distinct advantage to the Bharatiya Janata Party.

A look at the vote share of the BJP and the SP-BSP-RLD alliance in the 2017 Assembly elections in segments that will be facing bye-elections, gives an indication of the things to come. SP, BSP and RLD had contested separately in 2017 and their vote share has been added up now to show the alliance vote share.

The Tundla Assembly segment in Agra is a seat that has been vacated by Uttar Pradesh Minister S P Singh Baghel (who has been elected to the Lok Sabha). In 2017, the vote share of the BJP in this constituency was 48.49 per cent while the alliance votes were 48.47 per cent. If the alliance parties contest separately, their vote share will split which will be advantage BJP.

In the Igas Assembly segment, the BJP had got 55 per cent votes while the alliance ended up with 31.88 per cent vote share. In the Gangoh Assembly segment, BJP had got 38.78 per cent votes in 2017 whereas the alliance parties together got 35 per cent votes.

The Assembly segment where the alliance scored over the BJP is Jalalpur where BJP got 32.30 per cent votes and the alliance got 61.81 per cent votes. In Kanpur, the Govind Nagar seat had been won by former state minister Satyadev Pachauri who got 60.88 in 2017 while the alliance got 47.67 per cent votes. Pachauri has been elected to the Lok Sabha now.

Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Maurya said: "These figures prove that the BJP continues to enjoy the confidence of the voters and we are going to win all 11 seats in by-elections. The alliance performance is there for all to see and the division of votes between them will give a stronger edge to the BJP in the bye-elections."

-Amita Verma