COP26 may close ambition gap by 9 Gt CO2: Study

At the end of the pivotal UN climate change negotiations or COP26 week one on Friday, commitments, if delivered, would close ambition gap by 9 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2, leaving 13 Gt to go, says new analysis. To keep 1.5C alive, annual CO2 emissions in 2030 need to be reduced by further 22 Gt CO2. The world came into Glasgow with a question: Can collective action by government, industry and civil society keep the prospect of holding warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius in reach? New analysis previewed by the Energy Transition Commission suggests that, if delivered in full, commitments made by the close of the first week at Glasgow could deliver 9 Gt of the further 22 Gt reduction in CO2 emissions required to achieve 1.5C.

Action on methane is also crucial to achieving 1.5C, with an estimated 40 per cent reduction required in 2030 annual methane emissions needed compared to the business as usual pathway.

The research reflects new public and private sector commitments made during the first week of COP26, and the additional commitments made by the private sector through the UN Race to Zero in the run up to COP26. These commitments would need to be fully executed to have the effect detailed.

The new data and analysis by the Energy Transition Commission was previewed by the organisation's Chair, Lord Adair Turner at the headline event "Destination 2030" at COP26.