Dubbaka by-election - a game changer

Power is cyclic in any democracy. There's nothing like 'perennial power', while it might look like that, at times. Those who grow arrogant with power, will learn lessons sooner than later. Dubbaka by-election is one such lesson for CM KCR and TRS.

It's not the first time BJP has won an assembly election, its not even the first time BJP won a by-election in this region, and it wouldn't be the last either. In the recent past BJP has also won four MP seats in General Elections, which was an unexpected win, for all political pundits in the state.

BJP's rise in Telangana State will not be based on random wins, but every win will certainly consolidate the party across the state, for bigger and better electoral wins. Dubbaka by-election can be a game-changer, if the learnings from this election, tactics, strategy, key drivers for the win are analysed and replicated in the next Assembly Elections.

BJP has a treasure of experiences from across the nation in 40 years of its play in the political ecosystem of India. Rising from two MP seats in 1984 General Election to 303 MP seats in 2019, BJP has come a long way.

There are some key learnings in Dubbaka by-election and its results for all those who wish to learn:

Arrogance is expensive

It is evident that TRS Party President K Chandra Sekhar Rao, its working president K Taraka Rama Rao, senior party leader T Harish Rao have learnt no valuable lessons from their losses in 2019 general elections. It is not very easy to learn, while in power. There will be ample time to reflect, when one loses it all.

KCR and KTR did not even campaign in Dubbaka with misplaced confidence that victory would be a 'cake-walk'. Not considering an election unworthy to campaign is sheer arrogance. Especially, if one is the president or working president of a political party.

To slight an election, to under estimate opposition parties, to presume victory before hand, often leads to such political failures. Arrogance in politics, is quite expensive and certainly suicidal.

One doesn't lose every time

In a democracy, when one fights an election and loses,it doesn't mean he will lose every time. M Raghunandan Rao has lost couple of elections in this assembly, but he can't be written off forever. Voters can turnaround, if they find a candidate is more persuasive than the others. This has been proven many times in the past, and it has been proven all over again in this election.

BJP's winning spirit

BJP state president Bandi Sanjay's full-scale push to win this seat and party cadres resolve to give their very best have yielded this result, apart from the candidate's diligence. This win also established the fact, BJP can override Congress in Telangana State as a clear alternative to TRS in the future elections.

BJP across the nation in around 12 states has adopted the same persuasive grit with voters, to win most of the seats in byelections. Winning back Bihar to form the state government is a phenomenal feat. BJP's rise over its partner JD (U) in seat share, highlights its increasing foot print in Bihar.

Congress – a liability

Congress party has lost its voter-base across the board. Dubbaka byelection has established that Congress no more has 'vote-banks' it can bank on. The erosion of its traditional vote base is complete. Even across the nation, Congress has lost its support and is struggling to survive. Congress party electoral strike rate is at its worst ever.

In Bihar, Congress party has become a liability to alliance partner RJD with its ultra-weak performance. If this trend continues, no regional party would want to be in alliance with Congress in future elections. Congress party's negotiating power in alliance seat-share has plummeted to a new low, after Bihar elections.

There are red flags all over the place for Congress party, as massive migration of leaders to other parties and BJP is a certainty now. Congress can blame no one than their own national leadership at the helm for the ongoing devastation of party's construct.

TRS party decline

What goes up, has to come down. It applies to everything and everyone. TRS party has seen stupendous rise since 2014 and has even won a full mandate for the second time in Telangana in 2018. If KCR and his family considers this rise as a 'perennial phenomenon', they will be woken up from that dream sooner than later.

TRS party has massive internal bickering and is moving towards an implosion. GHMC elections will be 'a mid-term test' for TRS to prove everything is right inside the party. If leaders don't align seriously towards the party's objective, TRS is bound to lose GHMC elections. When that happens, it would be the beginning of the end for TRS regime in the state of Telangana.

BJP is confident that it will ride on the wave of Dubbaka election result into GHMC elections. BJP has found a chink in the armour of TRS and more mistakes from the incumbent party, along with incremental ground swell will lead BJP into more victories ahead.

(The writer is the chief spokesperson of BJP, organisational strategist & internationally reputed leadership coach)