Has Cong just scared the wits of BRS?

What stands between the ruling party and its possible hat-trick in Telangana state?Why the sudden change in fortunes for Congress in Telangana?

For the last few weeks, we have been facing an onslaught of opinion polls giving varying opinions and one is bewildered as to what is in store for the contending political parties, including the ruling dispensation on hat-trick wins. After the Election Commission announced the dates for polls in five states, the first set of opinion polls in Telangana gave an edge to Congress and the latter ones predicted a hung House and hat-trick for BRS. But in reality, is the time up for BRS-turned-TRS? Is time ripe for Congress? Is the time lost for BJP?

Since the brand-new state came into existence, two elections took place where Congress polled around 28% on both occasions, while BJP polled around 7% in two instances. The ruling party scraped through with 34.3% vote and 63 seats in 2018 and amassed nearly 47% vote share and 88 seats in the 2018 advanced elections.

As we all know, no southern state has registered hat-trick win so far after the Congress lost Andhra Pradesh to a belligerent NTR, and Karnataka for the much-needed change in 1983, which Congress had controlled since independence in 1947. Kerala and Tamil Nadu are the other two southern states where power rotation is the norm and hardly the ruling party is voted back to power, except for one recent instance of Jayalalithaa becoming the first incumbent CM to return to power after a long time and, similarly, Pinarayi Vijayan representing the Left Democratic Front has been in office since 2016.

Telangana state, which was part of the erstwhile Andhra Pradesh until 2014, like its present counterpart, has one thing incommon, which is Telugu; and, usually Telugu-speaking states are the opposite of giving a fractured mandate. In the post-emergency Lok Sabha elections, the Congress swept Andhra while the rest of the country voted for the Janata Party and, similarly, in the post-Indira Gandhi assassination 1984 LS polls, the Congress party led by Rajiv Gandhi swept the polls while in AP, it was the other way round with TDP becoming the principal opposition party in Lok Sabha. These instances make us understand that Telugu voters are both unique and decisive in nature.

Whenever there is a triangular fight in AP, it benefits the Congress party, as it proved in 1978 when the splinter group Reddy Congress and Janata Party failed to make a mark. Once again, in 2009, when film actor Chiranjeevi formed Praja Rajyam and contested, it helped Congress narrowly romp home. Should these factors help the BRS pin its hopes on a third term? The division of opposition votes would surely help the ruling party, but the huge erosion of the vote bank would also act otherwise. The Congress party, which was not even in the contention for second place – as it had disastrously lost the GHMC elections, and before that Dubbaka, Nagarjuna Sagar by-polls and, later, Huzurabad and the sitting Munugodu seat – suddenly finds itself in the driving seat.

The unforeseen transformation in the fortunes of the Congress party took place after Karnataka elections held in May last with Congress winning convincingly and in the process routing Janata Dal (S) and weakening BJP in a triangular fight. At the same time, the wavering of BJP’s central leadership in letting Kavitha off the hook in the Delhi liquor scam and the change of guard in the BJP state unit replacing Bandi Sanjay put in bad light. Under Sanjay’s leadership, the BJP put up a stunning performance, defeated the BRS in Dubbak, brought down the BRS tally in GHMC from 99 to 55, emerging as the second largest party with 48 seats, and also won Huzurabad bypoll, though it was the individual victory of Eatala Rajender. Sanjay was credited for replacing Congress with BJP as the main opposition party to the BRS following these electoral victories. Suddenly, he was rather replaced by a dormant Kishan Reddy and this might have benefitted BRS.

The change was allegedly carried out at the insistence of KCR, but indirectly it helped the Congress in coming from nowhere to a winning position. Apart from these, the aspects weighing heavily in favour of Congress are: Muslims after the Karnataka elections gravitating towards Congress, and the youth shifting to Congress from BJP in the unequivocal manner. The trend appears to be more alarming for BRS as young people and unemployed are likely to prevail upon their parents to vote for Congress. This may doom the chances of BRS as they are relying on the above 55-year category voters for the freebies and pensions reaching them. Youth seem to have turned against BRS due to its alleged mishandling of employment notifications and not giving unemployment allowance. Add to this, the sudden shift of allegiance of settlers’ vote due to the mishandling of Chandrababu arrest-related protests by KTR may cost the BRS dearly.

The question is now what it would be like: An additional 12% to 14% vote share for Congress to the base of 28%, which means 42% to 44%, erosion of 8% to 10% vote bank for BRS means (36% to 38%) which still is more than 34.3% obtained in 2014. BJP may poll around 10% to 12% votes which still will be a gain compared to 7% votes share in 2014 and 2018. The additional vote share for Congress need not necessarily come from BRS anti-incumbency only, as this time the TDP vote share of 14.7% in 2014 and 3.5% in 2018 may make Congress richer in seats, apart from making some inroads into MIM vote share, too.

(Writer is former Head, Department of Journalism, Potti Sreeramulu Telugu University, Hyderabad)