Will COP28 plan fair green transition?

Dubai: Amidst all the geopolitical noise around orderly phase out of all fossil fuels in line with science at the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28), the next few days will further shape world’s plans to get on while enabling a fast and fair transition to renewable energy to ensure the global temperature rise is limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius as per Paris temperature goal.

“The 1.5-degree limit is only possible if we ultimately stop burning all fossil fuels. Not reduce. Not abate. Phaseout,” UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said as the COP28 is underway.

Canada has been asked by the UAE COP presidency to help develop language on the role of fossil fuels that is acceptable to all parties. On fossil fuels, there are four options on table with just four days to go until COP28 is due to close. They include a phase out of fossil fuels in line with best available science; a phase out of unabated fossil fuels, consumption peak by 2030, energy sector to be ‘predominantly’ free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050; and phasing out unabated fossil fuels so as to achieve net-zero CO2 in energy systems around 2050.

“The four options in the draft of the Global Stocktake are longer but weaker. notably not stating what that science is,” a negotiator told IANS. As per findings from United Nations Environment Programme’s (UNEP’s) Emissions Gap Report 2023, the world is heading for a temperature rise of about 3 degrees Celsius by the end of the century unless countries now deliver more than they have already promised to tackle climate change.

Negotiators say a full package covering mitigation, adaptation and finance will be needed to complete these negotiations if the talks are to end on December 12 at 11 am, as intended.

Kaisa Kosonen, Head of the Greenpeace COP28 delegation, said: “We are here to make fossil fuels history. By now governments know they can’t leave this summit without an agreement to end fossil fuels, in a fast and fair manner. Now the question is what is the package of solutions, support and cooperation that will get us over the finishing line. It’s clear that developed countries are the ones that need to take the lead here.

Responding to a leaked letter from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) asking its members to reject any possible agreement at COP28 that mentions the phase out of fossil fuels, Cansın Leylim, 350.org Associate Director of Global Campaigns, said: “OPEC’s desperate resistance to a fossil fuel phase out reveals their fear of a changing tide, evident in COP28 discussions.”

In the context of India, a Global Energy Monitor report in July says it has 35.9 GW of new coal proposals in various pre-construction phases and about 31.6 GW in the construction phase. Outside of China, India has the largest coal power project pipeline.

However, over the years, the yearly capacity being commissioned has consistently declined.

In 2022, India commissioned close to 2 GW of coal power plants. This is significantly below the average 12 GW of new coal plant additions in the last 10 years (2012 - 2022).

A positive picture from India comes in an analysis authored by Centre for Financial Accountability (CFA) and Climate Trends that says the country for the second year in a row no coal power plant has received project finance lending in 2022. Lenders preferred financing renewable energy projects over coal. The report finds that all energy projects that reached financial closure for project finance lending in 2022 were renewable energy projects. On the flip side, it also showed a 45 per cent reduction in project finance to renewable energy.