Despite an El-Nino Monsoons will be normal in most of the country

Bengaluru: Amidst the looming spectre of an emerging El Nino phenomenon, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has upheld its previous forecast of a normal monsoon rainfall. However, the northwestern regions of the country can anticipate a slightly drier spell, according to the IMD.

The recent predictions however are favourable for the advancement of monsoons into Andaman and Nicobar islands and enter the mainland by 29 May which is just three days away, Which has been analysed by the scientists of the IMD as the monsoons will be in time and in normal position.

During the four-month monsoon season commencing in June, the country as a whole is expected to receive approximately 96 percent of its average rainfall. Nevertheless, the northwestern parts, including Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir, western Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, and certain areas of Rajasthan, may experience rainfall lower than 92 percent of their normal levels, as indicated by the updated IMD forecast.

Conversely, the remaining meteorological regions—northeast India, central India, and south peninsular India—should anticipate normal or above-normal rainfall, ranging between 94 and 106 percent of their long-term averages.

Based on data spanning from 1971 to 2020, the long-term average rainfall for northwest India during the monsoon season is 587.6 mm, while it is 978 mm for central India, 716.2 mm for south peninsular India, and 1367.3 mm for northeast India. The national average rainfall during the monsoon season stands at 870 mm.

The initial month of the monsoon season, June, is projected to witness a slight deficit, with the IMD anticipating rainfall at around 92 percent of the normal levels.

The IMD has highlighted a greater than 90 percent likelihood of an El Nino event occurring during the monsoon season. El Nino, characterized by abnormal warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, exerts global influences on weather patterns, including a suppressing effect on monsoon rainfall in India.

Scientists at the IMD point out that there are possibilities of the El Nino's impact being partially offset by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) development. IOD, a similar phenomenon in the Indian Ocean, manifests as slightly warmer waters in the western Indian Ocean compared to the eastern side, aiding monsoon rains. Nonetheless, the influence of IOD on the monsoon is generally not as pronounced as that of El Nino.

They further explained that this disparity is a contributing factor to the likelihood of below-normal rainfall in northwestern India, as the positive IOD's impact primarily extends to the southern peninsula and central India, offering limited benefits to the northwest.

Looking at historical data from 1951 to 2022, of the 15 El Nino years, nine experienced rainfall below 90 percent, four witnessed rainfall between 90 and 100 percent, while two years recorded rainfall exceeding 100 percent, according to IMD records.

as with any given year, variations in rainfall can be expected both spatially and temporally. June, typically bringing 165.4 mm of rainfall across the country, is anticipated to be deficient, with rainfall likely to fall below 92 percent. Long range forecasts for the full three months of monsoons 2023 will be developed and released in few more days.