Karnataka polls: Pre-poll survey predicts clear majority for Congress, no hung Assembly

Bengaluru: The election analytics is getting realistic and close to lifelike figures. In the latest pre-poll survey conducted by the election intelligence group Lok Poll, it has been projected that the Indian National Congress will get a clear majority with 116-122 seats in the 2023 elections expected to be held in May. This is a figure that had been making rounds in political circles in recent weeks.

The Lok Poll survey results indicate that the BJP will win somewhere between 77 and 83 seats followed by the JDS 21-27 seats and others have been pegged at 1-4 seats.

According to the findings, the INC will enjoy a vote share of 39-42 per cent followed by BJP at 33-36 per cent and JDS 15-18 per cent. The Lok Poll survey is based on one of the largest sample in the recent years at 45,000 respondents spread over 45 days and according to psephologists this is the right mix of sample for arriving at a very near to accurate figures.

Even the methodology adopted by the Lok Poll has been rated as one of the most scientific method available to the analysis. A source from the Lok Poll told The Hans India that for sample collection, 30 booths were randomly selected in each Assembly Constituency. The demographic breakdown has been considered as per the 2019 Lok Sabha Election data which is the most recent elections that the state had experienced. Each dataset is weighted at Assembly and State levels to reach the best representation of each assembly constituency.

The parameters applied for the survey includes some of the recent issues that has been aired by the voters including corruption allegations against the government, growing unemployment, price rise and slow growth

have increased anti-incumbency levels. Multiple reservation demands from various castes have created a sense of resentment against thegovernment. Welfare promises from Congress and JD(S) are gaining traction.

The lack of face in the BJP is hurting the party on the ground, and the absence of Yeddyurappa has not helped them either. The only silverlining for the BJP is that Prime Minister Narendra Modi still remains a factor, people believe state-centric issues will drive the election.

According to senior psephologists who add to this survey findings there are about 20-21 seats won by the BJP in 2018 are under heavy bout of anti- incumbency while Congress and JDS MLA have less than 3 seats under anti- incumbency. This means that the Congress party will not only gain new seats but also retain the seats that it won in 2018.

The JDS still remains at the sidelines. The fear of a hung assembly has been whiffed away as per the findings of the survey which makes JDS stand down at the third position.