Scanty rainfall in August; A glimmer of hope in September

Hyderabad: In a meteorological rollercoaster, Telangana’s fortunes with rainfall have taken a stark turn. After a bountiful deluge in July, the State now faces the aftermath of El Nino’s influence, resulting in August witnessing one of the driest spells in the past five decades. This abrupt and substantial shift in rainfall patterns highlights the capricious nature of weather and its significant impact on the region’s water resources and agricultural landscape.

Data released by the India Meteorological Department, Hyderabad (IMD-H) paints a sobering picture for Telangana’s rainfall in August. The State received a mere 79.6 mm of rainfall, a stark contrast to the usual 226.1 mm for this period.

The repercussions of this significant shortfall were felt across all districts, recording deficient rainfall with a striking deviation of -65 percent. This marked discrepancy not only underscores the region’s vulnerability to climatic fluctuations but also raises concerns about the potential implications for agriculture, water supply, and the overall ecological balance.

In a notable contrast to last year’s extensive cultivation of kharif crops covering 121.36 lakh acres in Telangana, the current year has seen a reduction, with only 116.35 lakh acres being cultivated. The extended period of aridity has further exerted pressure on energy demands, as the power load on the transmission system surged to approximately 14,600 MW on Thursday morning. This dual impact of diminished agricultural activity and increased energy consumption underscores the far-reaching consequences of the prevailing weather conditions on both the agricultural and infrastructural sectors.

Researchers attribute these prevailing dry conditions to the arrival of El Nino and its impact. “El Niño conditions generally weaken the monsoon circulation and can potentially result in drier conditions. Now that the El Nino has evolved to a moderately strong level in the Pacific, the impacts are felt, taking the monsoon to a deficit.

Our recent research shows that while the El Niño–monsoon relationship has considerably weakened and become non-existent over the central Indian region (core monsoon zone) in the recent decades. Monsoon seasonal prediction depends a lot on how the El Niño is simulated by the forecast model.

Hence, over the core monsoon zone where ENSO dominance is weak, the seasonal prediction may be challenging and predictable too. Other factors like Indian Ocean warming should be monitored for the core monsoon zone, due to its impact on the strength of the monsoon trough and the depressions,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune.

Meanwhile, a strong and steady ENSO-monsoon correlation over north and south India means that this relationship can be used for improved monsoon forecasts over these regions. These will also be the regions that get impacted by a significant reduction in rainfall during an El Nino.

“This year has brought about an exceptional weather pattern. While July brought forth copious rainfall, the monsoon took an unexpected turn in August, with a significant deficit in precipitation. The prolonged dry spell has raised slight concerns among us all. Nevertheless, our hopes remain anchored in the prospect of September heralding a resurgence in the monsoon, potentially alleviating the prevailing uncertainties,” said A Sravani Scientist C, IMD-H.

“The month of July witnessed a unique meteorological experience, characterised by flooding and abundant rains, primarily attributed to the prevailing Sub La Niña conditions. The combined influence of the Southern Oscillation Index and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) emerged as crucial factors in the remarkable rainfall surge.

However, the weather pattern took a distinct turn in August, marked by the intensification of the El Niño phenomenon, contributing to a substantial deficit in rainfall. Despite this, a ray of hope shines through as September approaches.

This optimism is fueled by the emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Indian Ocean. This development holds the potential to spark a revival in the monsoon, offering a promising glimpse of respite from the prevailing conditions,” says Balaji. 

El Niño conditions generally weaken the monsoon circulation and can potentially result in drier conditions. Now that the El Nino has evolved to a moderately strong level in the Pacific, the impacts are felt, taking the monsoon to a deficit. - Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune

This year has brought about an exceptional weather pattern. While July brought forth copious rainfall, the monsoon took an unexpected turn in August, with a significant deficit in precipitation. The prolonged dry spell has raised slight concerns among us said. - A Sravani Scientist C, IMD-H

Despite El Nino, a ray of hope shines through as September approaches. This optimism is fueled by the emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Indian Ocean. This development holds the potential to spark a revival in the monsoon. - T Balaji Telangana Weatherman