Australia facing growing risk of electricity generation shortfall

Canberra: Australia is facing a growing risk of a shortfall in its electricity generation capacity amid the green energy transition, the market operator warned on Friday.

The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released a draft roadmap for the energy transition, warning that earlier than planned closures of coal-fired power plants are jeopardizing the reliability of the electricity grid, reports Xinhua news agency.

The Integrated System Plan (ISP) calls for urgent investment to support new sources of affordable energy and double the roll-out of new transmission lines by 2030.

According to the report, 10 major coal-fired plants have closed since 2012 and the remaining fleet could close three times faster than previously flagged by their operating companies, leaving a "real and growing" risk that replacement generation is not available in time.

Under the most likely scenario, AEMO forecasts that 90 per cent of Australia's current 21 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired generation capacity will be retired by 2034-35 and all by 2038.

To replace outgoing coal generation and meet growing demands for electricity, the report said that the generation capacity of solar and wind farms will need to be tripled from approximately 19GW currently to 57GW by 2030 and expanded seven-fold to 126GW by 2050.

Rooftop solar generation capacity would also need to be quadrupled to 72GW by 2050, the report said, and almost 10,000 kilometers (km) of new transmission lines would need to be built.

"In the next decade, this plan shows the need for 5,000 km of transmission, both new projects and those underway, triple renewable generation and double dispatchable storage, hydro and gas-powered generation," Daniel Westerman, chief executive of AEMO, said in a statement.

"While progress is being made, the transition is urgent and faces significant risks if market and policy settings, social licence and supply chain issues are not addressed."

The ISP will be finalised by June 2024 after a period of public submissions on the draft roadmap.