24 per cent Muslim votes to decide fate of CPI(M), Cong in Kerala

Thiruvananthapuram: With just a few days left for the April 26 Lok Sabha polls, all eyes are on the voting pattern of around 24 per cent Muslims in Kerala, which could prove to be a game changer.

No one knows this better than Kerala Chief Minister, Pinarayi Vijayan, and for the last one week during his campaigns for the Left across the state, he has been harping on the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and on how the Left sees that.

CM Pinarayi Vijayan is also slamming the Congress for allegedly not taking up the CAA issue.

While Kerala Muslims account for 24 per cent of the state’s 3.30 crore population the Christian community accounts for 17 per cent of it.

However, the voting pattern of the Christian community by and large remains the same, with the Congress having a slight edge over the Left.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Left suffered one of its worst poll reversals when it could win just one seat, while the Congress-led UDF won a staggering 19 seats, and the BJP’s lotus failed to bloom.

Political analysts say that there were two principal reasons for the washout of the Left. One was the surprise arrival of senior Congress leader, Rahul Gandhi, as the Wayanad candidate and the flawed Sabarimala temple position that CM Vijayan took.

During 2019, Muslims voted in massive numbers for the Congress.

However, CM Vijayan who is a master of appeasement politics reversed the trend and he set a record by retaining office in the state in the 2021 Assembly polls.

Even though CM Vijayan’s victory is being attributed to the way he handled the Covid pandemic, the massive Muslim vote for the Left is believed to be the clinching factor behind his win.

On Tuesday, CM Vijayan was at his best and slammed Leader of Opposition, VD Satheesan, for saying that the Congress party’s manifesto was not silent on the CAA.

“He (Satheesan) is uttering lies and there is no mention of CAA at all in their poll manifesto,” said CM Vijayan.

A political analyst on condition of anonymity said the pattern of voting in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls and 2021 Assembly polls was clear and this time too, the way the Muslim community thinks, might be the deciding factor.

“The Left and the Congress are working hard to influence the Muslim community, as whoever manages to get the sizeable chunk of their votes will be the beneficiary and the biggest loser could well be the BJP,” said the analyst.

“This is due to the fact that the Left always has its strong voter base and in addition to it, if the Muslims decide to go with them, the Left will certainly have the last laugh,” added the analyst.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls the Kerala BJP-led NDA finished a distant third and managed a mere 15.64 per cent vote share.

The Congress-led UDF which won 19 seats secured a vote share of 47.48 per cent and the CPI(M)-led Left Front which bagged just one seat, got 36.29 per cent votes.