BJP’s historic victory in Haryana: A blow to Rahul Gandhi’s ‘caste politics’

New Delhi: Defying all exit poll predictions, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is poised to secure a historic third term in Haryana, as the Assembly election results present a clear picture. The claims made by Congress MP Rahul Gandhi about his party storming back to power in the state are far from reality, as the party has fallen well short of the majority mark.

The Assembly poll results in Haryana have brought to the fore several key takeaways, with a major message being the setback for caste politics and the caste census agenda that the Leader of the Opposition in Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, kept highlighting repeatedly during his campaign.

While the Gandhi scion spoke of a "tsunami" of support for the Congress in the state, it seems he relied on the assumption that reiterating caste issues would help woo Dalit voters in large numbers. However, the outcome has come as a big blow to Rahul Gandhi’s caste politics.

By repeatedly raking up the caste census priority in the party’s manifesto and speeches, Congress leaders including Rahul Gandhi aimed to attract Dalits, who comprise about 21 per cent of Haryana's population.

During the campaign for the October 5 Assembly elections in Haryana, Congress MP Rahul Gandhi promised to carry out a caste survey in a bid to win over the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in the state.

The grand old party pledged to implement this caste census if elected to power, making it a central theme in Gandhi's speeches at his rallies. He has been consistently advocating for a nationwide caste census during the Lok Sabha election campaign.

Dalits in Haryana are categorised into several sub-castes. The Jatavs represent the largest group, accounting for nearly 50 per cent of the total Scheduled Caste (SC) population. The second is the Valmiki community, which comprises about 25-30 per cent of the SC population, while the third Dhanaks, primarily urban residents, make up just over 10 per cent.

Eyeing the voters from these communities, Congress had fielded 17 Dalit candidates, all in SC reserved seats out of the state’s 90 assembly seats. This included 12 tickets for Jatav candidates, two for Valmikis, and three for other groups, signalling the party's strategy to consolidate the specific sub-caste voter base.

Observers are of the view that the assumption that Dalits would naturally gravitate towards the Congress is uncertain, as evidenced in the recent Lok Sabha polls. Despite Rahul Gandhi highlighting the caste census as a key agenda during the Haryana assembly elections, the results lend credence to the fact that voters were not swayed by this agenda.

The Congress party's defeat is, therefore, seen as a significant setback for its broader efforts at caste-based mobilisation, which will definitely impact the discourse around the caste census issue, according to poll watchers.