Challenges Mount For INDIA Bloc As Congress Faces Cross-Voting Setback In Rajya Sabha Polls

Last week concluded with a surge of optimism for the INDIA bloc as the Congress forged pan-India seat-share agreements with the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Samajwadi Party ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. However, hopes were dashed by the conclusion of Tuesday's Rajya Sabha polls as cross-voting incidents in Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh dealt a blow to the opposition's confidence.

Six Congress MLAs in Himachal Pradesh, alongside three independent MLAs and seven Samajwadi Party lawmakers in Uttar Pradesh, reportedly cross-voted, leading to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) securing one additional seat in each state. The unexpected outcomes underscored the challenges facing the INDIA bloc in the upcoming general election, where the BJP aims to secure a commanding victory.

While the Congress managed to retain three seats in Karnataka with support from independent and local party MLAs, the setbacks in Himachal Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh highlighted the uphill battle ahead. These defeats not only strengthen the BJP's position but also complicate the Congress' efforts to negotiate seat-share deals in other states, particularly amidst tensions with Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress in West Bengal.

Of particular significance is the fact that the BJP orchestrated elections in two of the states where it secured additional Rajya Sabha seats, both of which are governed by its arch-rival, the Congress. In Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress was expected to clinch victory comfortably, the unexpected cross-voting resulted in a deadlock, with both parties now claiming an equal number of votes.

In Uttar Pradesh, where ten Rajya Sabha seats were up for grabs, the BJP's prospects were bolstered by cross-voting from Samajwadi Party MLAs and support from Jayant Chaudhary's Rashtriya Lok Dal, an INDIA bloc member expected to align with the BJP-led alliance soon.

The Rajya Sabha elections also saw unopposed victories for several prominent figures, including Sonia Gandhi, who vacated her seat in Raebareli, possibly paving the way for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, and BJP leader JP Nadda, who shifted from Himachal Pradesh to Gujarat.

The outcomes of the Rajya Sabha polls serve as a reality check for the INDIA bloc, highlighting the formidable electoral challenges posed by the BJP's strategic maneuvers and the complex dynamics within opposition alliances.