Covid 3rd wave peak likely in Oct or Nov: Scientists

New Delhi: A possible third wave of coronavirus infection can hit its peak between October-November if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed, but it may see half the daily cases recorded during the second surge, said a scientist of a government panel tasked with modelling of Covid-19 cases.

However, Covid infection can spread faster during the third wave if any new virulent variant of SARS-CoV-2 emerges, said Manindra Agarwal who is working with the Sutra Model-- the mathematical projection of the COVID-19 trajectory.

The panel was formed by the Department of Science and Technology last year to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models. Besides Agarwal, who is a scientist with IIT-Kanpur, the panel also has M Vidyasagar, another scientist with IIT-Hyderabad, and Lt.

Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief (Medical) of Integrated Defence Staff, as members. The panel had earlier received flak for not predicting the ferocity of the second wave of COVID-19 in the country.

About the predictions for the third wave, Agarwal said the loss of immunity, effects of vaccination and the possibility of a more virulent variant have been factored in this time, which was not done while modelling the second wave. He said a detailed report will be published soon.

"We have created three scenarios. One is optimistic, where we assume that life goes back to normal by August and there is no new mutant. Another is intermediate wherein we assume that vaccination is 20 per cent less effective in addition to optimistic scenario assumptions.

"The final one is pessimistic with assumptions different from the intermediate one: a new 25 per cent more infectious mutant spreads in August (it is not Delta plus, which is not more infectious than Delta variant)," Agarwal said in a series of tweets.

According to a graph shared by Agarwal, the second wave is likely to plateau by mid-August and a possible third wave could reach its peak between October and November.