LS polls 2024: Ace pollster analyses impact of CAA, Rahul’s Nyay Yatra

New Delhi: The dates for Lok Sabha elections 2024 will be announced on Saturday, and it will clear the decks for high-decibel and trailblazing campaign by all political parties including BJP, Congress and regional satraps.

Prima facie, political pundits and election watchers see BJP-led NDA in pole position and the Opposition parties in complete disarray despite the latter’s desperate attempts to gang up against the Narendra Modi dispensation.

Pradeep Gupta, nation’s leading pollster, in an exclusive conversation with IANS, shared his views on BJP’s advantageous position ahead of 2024 elections, and also broke down the likely impact of Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and Rahul Gandhi-led Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra on the poll outcome.

Pradeep Gupta, the Chairman and Managing Director (CMD) of Axis My India told IANS that BJP has made development its major poll plank with PM Modi leading from the front while Congress and other rival parties are seen stuck in "regressive" issues like caste-based reservation and Old Pension Scheme. Moreover, BJP is heading to polls this time, boasting about fulfilled promises including Ram Temple, abrogation of Article 370, Triple Talaq and more.

Gupta further said that BJP’s fulfilled promises pitch will not only re-affirm the faith of existing voters but will also help win over new ones with development narrative; but for Congress as well as rival parties, the lack of any people-centric and people-driven campaign remains their biggest drawback.

Sharing his views on CAA’s likely impact in 2024 polls, he said that it is unlikely to have any tangible impact on ground but by notifying it just before the elections, BJP may have set the optics right.

“Bengal and Assam, with 27 per cent and 30 per cent Muslim population are likely to have biggest impact of CAA, if it happens. Though CAA is not discriminatory against local population, this move will only generate goodwill and support base for BJP for its humanitarian gesture towards oppressed non-Muslim migrants,” Gupta said.

Assessing impact of Congress' Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra on 2024 elections, he called it a "welcome and progressive" move but ruled out any significant gains for the party.

“If the top leadership of a party, with its history spanning over 100 years, goes at length to meet people across the country and takes first-hand information about their daily troubles and pain, it’s a welcome move as it has never been attempted before. It should be seen as a conscious effort from the party to build public connect, something it had taken for granted in past few years,” he said.

“However, it’s too early to yield substantial gains in the upcoming 2024 polls. It takes years to build public connect and reap electoral benefits,” he added.

Likening the Congress' groundbreaking initiative to any student’s graduation ceremony, he said that it takes at least 10-12 years to attain a graduate degree; similarly the party's Nyay Yatra may also yield plausible gains -- but in future elections, not 2024."