Monsoon to remain weak till July 5 says IMD scientist RK Jenamani
Monsoon to remain weak till July 5
New Delhi: A combination of several seasonal factors have weakened the monsoon and slowed its northward journey. Experts say that this is likely to continue till July 5. They say the monsoon started weakening from June 21 and it is likely to weaken further until July 5 when it is expected to strengthen again.
This year, the monsoon started with good rains in most parts of the country like the peninsular region, the western coast, the central region and even in the northeast.
Until some weeks ago, monsoon's advancement was so strong that at one point the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted it would reach Delhi by June 15. However, due to several inter-seasonal developments, its northward advancement has slowed down.
Since June 21, monsoon has remained active in central and eastern parts of the country while the southern peninsular region too has received some rain.
As per IMD's forecast, Bihar, eastern Uttar Pradesh and parts of Karnataka are likely to continue receiving rain until Monday. However, after that, monsoon is likely to weaken for at least a week. Experts at IMD say this is a "temporary phase" triggered by local seasonal factors.
Senior IMD scientist RK Jenamani explains, "Normally when the Southwest Monsoon starts from the Arabian Sea, the monsoon system travels in the form of waves, reaching different parts of the country.
It is helped by low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal, which pushes it further in the northwest direction. This time, there were easterly winds but they were not strong enough to reach the northwestern parts of the country. Hence, it provided rain till eastern Uttar Pradesh and some parts of western Uttar Pradesh too."
Jenamani added that apart from this, generally during summers, there are no or very few Western Disturbances, which helps monsoon to move forward. "These systems are the backbone of monsoon development. From June 29, all these systems are becoming unfavourable, and hence monsoon rains are unlikely in most parts except the Eastern and northeastern regions," Jenamani said.