Oppn dropped all catches

New Delhi: Political strategist Prashant Kishor on Sunday said the Opposition parties had missed three distinct and realistic chances of stopping the BJP juggernaut because of laziness and misplaced strategies.

He predicted, “BJP will either be the first or second party in Telangana which is a big thing. They will be number one in Odisha for sure. You would be surprised as, in all likelihood, to my mind, the BJP is going to be the number one party in West Bengal.” In Tamil Nadu, he said, BJP's vote share may hit double-digit percentage.

Telangana, Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar and Kerala together account for 204 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha but the BJP couldn't cross 50 seats in all these states put together either in 2014 or 2019 when it won 29 and 47 constituencies, respectively. He, however, asserted that the BJP is unlikely to win 370 seats, its target set for the polls. Speaking of the Lok Sabha polls starting from April 19, he said the BJP will feel the heat only if the Opposition, especially the Congress, can ensure that it loses at least around 100 seats in its strongholds of north and west India. And that's not going to happen, he says. "By and large, the BJP will be able to hold its ground in these regions," he said.

The BJP has made a major and visible push to expand in south and east India over the years as its top leaders like Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have frequented these states. On the other hand, the Opposition has made little effort in these states.

“Your fight is in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh but you are touring Manipur and Meghalaya. Then how you will get success,” he said in an apparent swipe at Rahul Gandhi.

He further said that Opposition Congress should win in UP, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh otherwise winning Kerala alone will not help the Opposition in any way. He felt that the Congress had committed a strategic mistake by giving space to the BJP in Amethi.

He noted that Modi had chosen to contest from Uttar Pradesh in addition to his home state Gujarat in 2014 “because you cannot win India unless you win the Hindi heartland or have a significant presence in the Hindi heartland.”

Kishor said Opposition parties, especially the Congress, failed to capitalise whenever the ruling party was on the back foot after 2014. He said the BJP had a long barren phase electorally in 2015 and 2016 when it lost several Assembly polls.

The BJP had a poor run post-demonetisation after its win in the Uttar Pradesh Assembly polls in 2017 when it almost lost power in Gujarat and was defeated in several states in 2018, but the Congress “blundered” in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. “If you keep dropping catches, the batter will score a century, especially if he is a good batsman,” Kishor said.