Indian economy poised to pick up in 2019, says IMF

​Washington: India is projected to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2019 and 7.7 per cent in 2020, an impressive over one percentage point ahead of China's estimated growth of 6.2 per cent in these two years, the IMF said on Monday attributing the pick up to the lower oil prices and a slower pace of monetary tightening. 

The International Monetary Fund in its January World Economy Outlook update on Monday said India would remain the fastest growing major economies of the world. "India's economy is poised to pick up in 2019, benefiting from lower oil prices and a slower pace of monetary tightening than previously expected, as inflation pressures ease," the IMF said.  

Despite fiscal stimulus that offsets some of the impact of higher US tariffs, China's economy will slow down due to the combined influence of needed financial regulatory tightening and trade tensions with the US, the IMF said in its latest report.
 
Growth in emerging and developing Asia will dip from 6.5 per cent in 2018 to 6.3 per cent in 2019 and 6.4 per cent in 2020, it said. China which grew at 6.9 per cent in 2017, as compared to 6.7 per cent by India, had a growth rate of 6.6 per cent in 2018. In the next two years – 2019 and 2020 – it is projected to grow at 6.2 per cent each, the IMF said. 

The latest IMF projections remains unchanged from its previous World Economic Outlook projections. While, the Chinese growth rate has been on a downward slope, according to IMF, India has experienced an upward trajectory in these years. 

The IMF said India's growth rate in 2018 was 7.3 per cent. It has been projected to grow at 7.5 per cent in 2019, which is a marginal 0.1 per cent above its previous projection. In 2020, India is projected to grow at 7.7 per cent. 

The IMF report comes days after the PwC's Global Economy Watch said that India is likely to surpass the United Kingdom in the world's largest economy rankings in 2019. "India and France are likely to surpass the UK in the world's largest economy rankings in 2019, knocking it from fifth to seventh place in the global table," the report said. 

"India should return to a healthy growth rate of 7.6 per cent in 2019-20, if there are no major headwinds in the global economy such as enhanced trade tensions or supply side shocks in oil. "The growth will be supported through further realisation of efficiency gains from the newly adopted Goods and Services Tax and policy impetus expected in the first year of a new government," said Ranen Banerjee, Partner and Leader – Public Finance and Economics, PwC India.