Nothing to boast for Congress

Why the Congress leaders are going overboard with the results in three Assembly elections in the north India? The recent results do not form a part of any trend, whatsoever. The Karnataka elections earlier this year, didn’t give a clear mandate to the Congress, where it was the ruling party and yet the BJP emerged as the single largest party and came very close to clinching power.

Thus, the Congress, in the time period concerned, was able to reap the benefits of anti-incumbency of another party like in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Punjab. In Gujarat too, the Congress was able to grow its vote share and the number of seats. However, the popular vote garnered by the incumbent BJP also increased, even when it lost a few seats, which it had previously held.

Alternatively, the Congress was not able to beat its own incumbency. This was evident in Rajasthan (2013), Delhi (2013), Assam (2016), Maharashtra (2016), Himachal Pradesh (2017), Mizoram (2018), Meghalaya (2018), etc. In all such elections, Congress was the incumbent and was beaten by another party. It will be correct to read the recent Assembly verdicts in this light. In Mizoram, Congress was the incumbent and lost the election. Much like the pattern of the party’s electoral performances.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress did reap the dividend of a three-term incumbency of the BJP but couldn’t perform as well as it should have been. The popular vote was still marginally won by the BJP and only with a little luck, the Congress could get more seats than the BJP, as the fight was reduced to few hundred votes in these seats.

 - Karthik V, Hyderabad