Monsoon 2018: Early indications hint normal monsoon

India is expected to witness a normal monsoon which could bring in a major relief to several states. Although the national weather forecaster IMD is yet to make an official pronouncement on the likely rainfall pattern this year, the recent bulletin ruled out the possibility of El Nino (an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific routinely associated with weak monsoon) till August.

The agency officials said that any negative factor has not shown up so far, However, IMD director general K J Ramesh threw caution stating that it was too early to predict at this junction and more certainty would come across after two weeks as the first forecasts will be made by mid-April.

A moderate La Nina (episodes depicting periods of below-average sea surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific) was also noted during March-May period.

The US national oceanic and atmospheric administration (NOAA) in early March lent support to the optimism on the Indian monsoon by explaining the factors behind its forecast that the tropical Pacific will return to neutral by the March-May season.