Coalition govt needn’t mean Rahul will be PM

As H D Kumaraswamy attempts to stitch a proper understanding with the Congress high command in forming a coalition government in Karnataka, he should also keep an eye on the political pitfalls ahead. No one would deny that it is the political compulsion that is bringing them together. Yet compulsions alone cannot retain someone in power. The JD(S) might be, at present, elated over the response the proposed wedlock between the two asymmetrical formations has triggered across the country. However, the Congress would be more cautious about the same as it evaluates and weighs each and every response. 

The JD(S) will be happy with its position once its government is in place. The Congress will not be content with it. It will not be content because, the grand old party has too much mess on hand. It has to fight back to crawl to safety and Karnataka alone would not ensure it. Its success in Karnataka is not to be attributed to Rahul Gandhi in anyway and it is Sonia Gandhi's brilliance that had come to the fore. 

She realises the implications of losing Karnataka more than any and the seniors in the party are also aware of it. The party has to fight Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh later this year. It falls back on the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee for its electoral expenditure. It knows pretty well that the BJP would not have offered the JD(S) the Chief Ministership and hence Deve Gowda grabbed the proposal made by the Congress.

The Congress, hence, would certainly like to have its share of the pie from Karnataka while perpetuating the idea of an invincible non-BJP coalition across the nation to take on the BJP. Hence, it is all the more important that the party corners plum portfolios so as not to be too much dependent on the Chief Minister for its financial health while making the right moves to keep the coalition intact to convey to the non-BJP platform that it is ready to make compromises in the long run. 

This perception is very important in the present context as the BJP has dithered in its coalition dharma angering its allies and distancing Shiv Sena, TDP and Akalis in the process of strengthening and the Congress has to be seen different. This places the Congress in an unenviable position as in Karnataka because it must now be prepared to make all kinds of sacrifices in appeasing the regional parties, whatever may be the latter’s demands.

Interestingly, Mayawati is still not reconciled to the Congress' pole position and so is Akhilesh Yadav. They don't treat Rahul Gandhi as a poll sitter either. There would be no compromise from the BJD too to please Rahul Gandhi. The juvenile declaration that he would not mind being the Prime Minister also has put spokes into the Congress scheme of things. It is as good as saying a so and so would be the Chief Minister of Karnataka from the Congress and yet seek the support of JD(S). The latter would not have agreed to the proposal. This is to say that the coalition offer has not been made by the JD(S), but by the Congress. The Congress high command too cannot talk about the candidature of Rahul Gandhi for the Prime Minister's post and yet seek an alliance with regional satraps. 

In West Bengal, Odisha, UP, Bihar, J&K, Maharashtra, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh where regional parties are strong enough to take on the BJP, the Congress leadership has to replicate a Karnataka. Otherwise, it would not be possible for a perfect coalition to be stitched across. 

In essence, it should not insist on a Congress-led UPA-III but agree to a regional front-led Congress alliance. Will it be ready to do so? This is the real crisis for the Congress. It may not pave way for Rahul Gandhi to become the next Prime Minister.

Such is the power of democracy. Erosion of strength means erosion of moral authority and hence its supremacy. At this juncture, the Congress cannot afford to ignore the above reality if it wants to survive. It will be very difficult to please the regional party leaders. Who will entertain the Congress in West Bengal where it has no relevance? Its best chance is in Telangana where it could court the TDP to topple the TRS government because it could even cut into the minority vote bank of the TRS with this combination. 

In effect, if the Congress is ready to play the second fiddle (could be a third and fourth too) in all these States, it could dream of surviving. Is it prepared to handle these compunctions of conscience? More because, the BJP is ready to brush aside the moral compunctions and compunctions of legal technicalities in its run-up to Modi 2.0.

How will Rahul Gandhi learn this art? Karnataka is almost like trying to learn to bake a cake by eating one, instead of by watching the baker. It is the seniors of the party who did it at the express advice of Sonia Gandhi. Has Rahul watched the process intently? 

Even in Karnataka, the Congress has to tread with caution. Any scheming on its part will make its future very bleak and hence it should not practise the past. The writing on the wall is 'Don’t Dump Friends.' In all its dealings with the JD(S), it should not lose the narrative. The tongues of its leaders must be tied and only judiciously processed and vetted words must be allowed to escape their lips. It is essential to do so as a communicative act may be thought of as a transaction, involving manifold relationships between persons, their pasts and their present situations. This leads to a situation where one of the most crucial elements of communication becomes the very selection of subjects.

In the fight against the BJP, such a 'most crucial element of communication' should then become 'how to roll back the BJP' and certainly not who should be the Prime Minister. Politics is not a fine art. It is a popular art, though it may be defined as a kind of communication which uses many of the techniques of the fine arts and which, sometimes, has the general appearance of fine art. It is a profoundly different sort of thing. 

This is judged by the people who consume it. The Congress shall be judged by its 'Karnataka behaviour' now onwards. The JD(S) is at liberty to do what it needs to, the Congress won't be. Just as in Karnataka, for the Congress, every compulsion and compunction, must be set aside except one - keeping the BJP out – if it is to become acceptable to the regional front.