Mayawati, the eternal disruptor

 In a stunning shocker of sorts in recent times, BSP supremo Mayawati struck a deal with the ex-Congress leader Ajit Jogi’s Janta Congress Chhattisgarh (JCC) party in Chhattisgarh. The news that BSP has no qualms about dealing with the former CM Ajit Jogi’s infant JCC is also a blunt warning to the Congress party hawks. Recently, in an interview, Mayawati curtly demanded that whoever wants to do business with her party, they have to be ready for respectable seat sharing agreement.

Thus, the JCC deal and her unilateral announcement of 22 BSP candidates to contest from Madhya Pradesh clears any uncertainty in the minds of leaders, who are keen on benefiting from BSP’s influence across the width and bread of the parliamentary constituencies. Those who desire Mayawati’s role in mobilizing Dalit votes in their favour will have to pay substantial price by way of sharing as many seats as demanded by the BSP or be prepared for no deal at all. To the Congress, this act alone served as a clear warning on road to Lok Sabha elections coming up in 2019.

In the assembly elections in Karnataka, BSP proved its mettle by entering into pre- poll pact with the JDS, subsequently pushing the Congress party to support Kumaraswamy as the CM. This was possible only after JDS entered into a post- poll alliance with the Congress party. No one ignores the strategically critical input provided by Mayawati through the four large scale meetings to mobilise the Dalit vote in favor of JDS/BSP alliance.

While the post poll alliance discussions were going on, Mayawati made a curious comment that Congress party should have reached out to JDS for a pre- poll alliance! And it was strategically wrong on the Congress Party to have missed the opportunity to ascertain who was a greater evil between the JD(S) and BJP! Rahul Gandhi perhaps was not in a position to gamble with any alternatives being proposed.

Has the Congress party missed the red alert? The result of Congress party’s less willing offer and the subsequent delay in allocating Mayawati’s ‘fair share’ cannot be to Congress’s advantage. BSP’s story hasn’t been great during the last 10 years, losing out twice in the assembly elections (2012 and 2017) and the 2014 Lok Sabha elections with its worst ever performance by bagging zero seats.

In the 2017 assembly elections BSP nearly got washed out winning only 17 seats and losing 61 previously held seats. However, stars soon began to unravel the subtle potential BSP has. Starting with the bypolls in UP during early 2017 where Mayawati extended support to Samajwadi Party (SP) candidates to defeat BJP, the party lost two most crucial Lok Sabha seats held by CM Yogi’ and his deputy to the SP candidates. Subsequent results from the bypolls held in Bihar, UP and MP were all crystal clear for everyone to see why no one can afford not ally with the BSP and Behenji!

The failure of Congress party not to have reached an understanding with BSP will have far reaching consequences. A lot of manoeuvering and craftsmanship may be required to engage with BSP and JCC coalition while fighting with BJP in the potential triangular contest. Chhattisgarh has a unique demographic picture with over 50 percent of the voters belonging to the SCs and STs and even in their earnest pleas with the voters, they can only target the BJP for its 15 years of ‘corrupt’ rule.

The upcoming assembly elections in Telangana, Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan (and also in Mizoram, where the term for the current government will end on December 18) will be keenly watched. The crucial point of attention for everyone will be, how much of extra meat will have to be given away to Behenji as a goodwill gesture, excluding the rightful stake in constituencies where the BSP has a credible and demonstrated vote bank through the earlier elections.

This will also be a test for Mayawati’s ability not only to extract her pound of flesh that belongs to BSP rightfully but also her willingness to play a game she has never played before of working as a member of a team for the larger goal. 

This apart, in a most possible scenario after the 2019 elections, between these ambitious maverick satraps like Mulayam Singh, Sharad Pawar, Mamata Banerjee and KCR, Arvind Kejriwal and Mayawati, it is forgone conclusion that the Sonia Gandhi will side with the Behenji than with the others. That possibly explains why Sonia Gandhi too has been investing into great personal rapport with Mayawati.

On the other side of the coin, in the event of a choice between Rahul Gandhi and Mayawati, post- 2019 election scenario, most regional party leaders will not be comfortable with the Congress Party taking a leading role. And importantly, they all seem to cling on to the utter self-belief that in the event of a fractured mandate in the 2019 elections – they all stand a chance.

It would be interesting to note whether Rahul Gandhi has argued with his mother Sonia Gandhi for a different strategy, while dealing with Behenji and the BSP. Or typical to the image earned over these years has he messed it up by sheer procrastination? Or is he prematurely positioning himself as ‘beta’ noire against Narendra Modi, who is being hailed as the most successful PM campaigner since Indira Gandhi? Or he is just overestimating the emerging issues like the Rafale deal as ‘Bofors’ like opportunities to turn around the table in Congress party’s favour? (The author is a Leadership and Organizational Psychologist)

By Dr Ravi Chandra Raju