Skymet predicts normal monsoon

​New Delhi: Private weather forecasting agency, Skymet on Wednesday in its first forecast said that southwest monsoon in 2018 is expected to be normal at 100 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus and minus 5 per cent. The long period average for the June to September rains is around 887 millimetres.

The agency also said that there is nil possibility of a big nationwide drought or deficient rainfall when the total cumulative seasonal rainfall across the country falls below 90 per cent of LPA. There is 80 per cent chance of the southwest monsoon to be normal (between 96-104 per cent of the LPA) this year.

In the last three seasons, actual rains were below Skymet’s first forecast in 2015 and 2016. However, the forecasts made in April were subsequently updated in the coming months. Meanwhile, monthwise Skymet said that monsoon rains in June would be 111% of the LPA with 90 per cent chance of it being normal. June gets around 164 millimetres of rainfall. July rains are expected to be 97 per cent of the LPA with 70 per cent chance of it being normal.    

The country receives around 289 millimetres of rainfall in July, which is also the highest in the four-month monsoon season that starts from June. The month is also crucial for sowing of most kharif crops.

In August, Skymet said that country is expected to receive rains equivalent to 96 per cent of LPA with 65 per cent chance of them being normal. The country receives 262 millimeters of rainfall in August. In September, the country is expected to receive rains around 101% of LPA with 80 per cent chance of them being normal. India gets around 173 millimeters of rainfall in the last month of the monsoon season.

The southwest monsoon is critical not only for agriculture growth as less than half of the cultivable land is under irrigation, but also boosts the general economy. A good monsoon not only helps in boosting the chances of bumper kharif harvest but also helps in rejuvenating reservoirs and groundwater sources, which are critical for rabi crops. Almost 70 per cent of India’s annual precipitation comes in the months of June to September. 

The 2017 southwest monsoon season India received ‘below normal’ rainfall at 95 per cent of the LPA as against the India Meteorological Department (IMDs) forecast of rains to be normal at 98 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus 4 per cent. Skymet had predicted a ‘below normal’ monsoon in 2017.

The monsoon last year after making a steady start in June and July, went for an extended break in August and also till early September which pulled down the total cumulative seasonal rainfall.