World Test Championship 2025: How Australia Could Still Miss Out on WTC Final Spot

Australia has solidified its WTC final qualification following a commanding 3-1 series victory over India, including a six-wicket triumph in Sydney. This victory not only secured Australia’s first Test series win against India since 2014-15 but also confirmed their place in the World Test Championship final at Lord’s in June. There, they are set to face South Africa, who earlier clinched their own spot with a thrilling two-wicket win over Pakistan in the Boxing Day Test.

Currently, Australia holds a strong position in the WTC points table 2025, with a points percentage of 63.73, comfortably ahead of the other contenders. Teams such as Pakistan, West Indies, and Sri Lanka cannot surpass Australia’s points under normal circumstances. Even if Sri Lanka were to win the upcoming series 2-0, their points percentage would only reach 53.85, while Australia’s would drop to 57.02—still enough to maintain their Australia WTC final spot.

However, a potential scenario could endanger Australia’s WTC final qualification. If the Australian team were to incur an eight-point deduction due to slow over rates across their remaining matches, and Sri Lanka were to sweep the series 2-0, the Lankans would surpass Australia, knocking them out of the WTC final and claiming the final spot instead. This unlikely situation would deprive Australia of their place in the Test cricket championship final at Lord’s.

While this scenario seems improbable, there is precedent for penalties due to slow over rates. In the 2023 Ashes series, Australia was docked 10 points for slow over rates in the fourth Test, while Pakistan was also handed a six-point penalty earlier in their series against Bangladesh.

Australia managed to avoid penalties in their Sydney Test, completing both innings in under 80 overs. However, their upcoming tour of Sri Lanka presents a new challenge. Given the spin-friendly conditions, Australia may rely heavily on their slower bowlers, which should assist in maintaining the over rate. Still, long fielding sessions could test the team’s ability to meet the required over rates.

In their previous Test series in Sri Lanka, Australia was forced to bowl 181 overs after Dinesh Chandimal’s double century, a reminder of the pressure these conditions can impose on maintaining the over rate.

Despite this, the odds of Australia missing out on WTC 2025 qualification remain slim. They are still in a strong position in the World Test Championship standings and remain focused on securing the Australia cricket team WTC spot for the final. However, the situation highlights the importance of avoiding penalties and staying vigilant in the final stages of their campaign. For now, Australia is well-placed to compete for the WTC mace, but their qualification for Lord's depends on consistent performance in the remaining fixtures.