34% of economists expect a US recession

Washington: A number of US business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump's economic policies that they expect a recession in the US by the end of 2021.

Thirty-four per cent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report being released Monday, said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021.

That's up from 25 per cent in a survey taken in February. Only 2 per cent of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38 per cent predict that it will occur in 2020.

Trump, however, has dismissed concerns about a recession, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy after last week's steep drop in the financial markets and saying on Sunday, "I don't think we're having a recession."

A strong economy is key to the Republican president's 2020 reelection prospects. The economists have previously expressed concern that Trump's tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on goods from many key US trading partners, from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada.

Officials maintain that the tariffs, which are taxes on imports, will help the administration gain more favourable terms of trade. But US trading partners have simply retaliated with tariffs of their own.

Trade between the US and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged.

Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until December 15 tariffs on about 60 per cent of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to nearly everything the US buys from China.

The financial markets last week signalled the possibility of a US recession, adding to concerns over the ongoing trade tensions and word from Britain and Germany that their economies are shrinking.