Moody's slashes India GDP growth in 2020 to 2.5%

Moody's Investors Service today slashed its estimate of India's GDP growth during the 2020 calendar year to 2.5 per cent, from an earlier estimate of 5.3 per cent. It and said the Coronavirus pandemic will cause unprecedented shock to the global economy. The estimate for 2020 compares to 5 per cent economic growth in 2019.

In its Global Macro Outlook 2020-21, Moody's said India is likely to see a sharp fall in incomes at the estimated 2.5 per cent growth rate, further weighing on domestic demand and the pace of recovery in 2021. Moody's said the global economy will contract in 2020, followed by a pickup in 2021.

"In India, credit flow to the economy already remains severely hampered because of severe liquidity constraints in the bank and non-bank financial sectors," it said.

Earlier this week, India imposed a three-week-long nationwide lockdown, the most far-reaching measure undertaken by any government to curb the spread of the Coronavirus pandemic that has killed at least 20 people in India so far. It has also resulted in the closure of businesses as well as factories and temporary unemployment for thousands of workers. The lockdown followed suspension of the train, flight and long-distance bus services last week.

Moody's now expects real GDP in the global economy to contract by 0.5 per cent in 2020, followed by a pickup to 3.2 per cent in 2021.