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Multiplex Update - Jinesh Joshi - Research Analyst, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd
Can Lord RAMA rescue PVR-INOX in 1QFY24E?
Adipurush, an upcoming film based on Hindu epic Ramayana, is set to release on 16th June. Advance booking trends are encouraging and we believe performance of this film will be critical for PVR-Inox’s fortunes in 1QFY24E. So far, 4 movies have crossed the NBOC barrier of Rs1bn in 1QFY24E and if Adipurush is able to net upwards of Rs5bn, we believe PVR-Inox will report a better performance than 4QFY23 (managed pre-IND AS EBITDA breakeven).
Exhibit 1: NBOC of movies that crossed Rs1bn mark over last 2 quarters
Source: PL *Our estimate. Film will be released in 4,000 screens across India.
Our view: Even if Adipurush clocks Rs5bn, NBOC of top-grossers would be lower than previous quarter. However, we believe 1QFY24E can be better than 4QFY23 as:-
- Bhola released on 30th March and netted Rs800mn. Hence, the spill-over has happened in 1QFY24E.
- There are quite a few movies like Zara Hatke Zara Bachke (Rs610mn), Guardians of the Galaxy (Rs494mn), Virupaksha (Rs640mn), and Transformers-Rise of the Beast (Rs312mn) that have done well aiding collections for the quarter.
- Flash is set to release on 16th June and will further boost NBOC.
- 4QFY23 had 3 regional movies from South. However, NBOC share of multiplexes for Southern movies is typically lower as that market is dominated by single screens.
Thus, overall, we believe 1QFY24E can post a better performance than previous quarter as hopes are riding high on Adipurush. Retain BUY on PVR with a TP of Rs1,879.
PVR Inox (PVRINOX IN)
Rating: BUY | CMP: Rs1,457 | TP: Rs1,879
Key Financials - Consolidated
PL Research is also available on Thomson Reuters & FactSet.
