PL Sector Report: Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers - Weekly Update – Crop acreages marginally up +0.3% YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 20th Sep’23 down 7% YoY

PL Sector Report: Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers - Weekly Update – Crop acreages marginally up +0.3% YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 20th Sep’23 down 7% YoY
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Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd

Highlights

Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers - Swarnendu Bhushan - Co-Head of Research, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd

Agro Chemicals & Fertilizers - Swarnendu Bhushan - Co-Head of Research, Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt Ltd

Weekly Update – Crop acreages marginally up +0.3% YoY; Cumulative rainfall as on 20th Sep’23 down 7% YoY

§ Crop Acreages as on 22nd Sep’23: marginally up +0.3% YoY.

§ Rainfall as on 20th Sep’23 down 7% YoY

§ Water Reservoir levels as on 21st Sep’23- down 19% YoY; South India remains lower

§ Sugar production expected to improve die to good rains in September

§ Paddy acreage up 3% to 411.52 lakh hectares so far this kharif sowing season, pulses area down 5%.

§ Global agri science major FMC corporation set to introduce new wheat herbicide in India.

§ EU discussing approval of Roundup glyphosate for another ten years.

Exhibit 1: Crop Acreages as on 22nd Sep’23; marginally up +0.3%YoY

(Lac Ha)

Till 15th Sep

Till 22nd Sep

Crops

In 2023

In 2022

YoY %

In 2023

In 2022

YoY %

WoW%

Rice

409.4

398.6

2.7%

411.5

400.7

2.7%

0.5%

Pulses

121.0

127.6

-5.2%

122.6

128.5

-4.6%

1.3%

Coarse Cereals

183.1

181.5

0.9%

186.1

183.7

1.3%

1.6%

Oilseeds

192.2

194.3

-1.1%

192.9

196.1

-1.6%

0.4%

Sugarcane

59.9

55.7

7.7%

59.9

55.7

7.6%

0.0%

Jute & Mesta

6.6

7.0

-5.7%

6.6

7.0

-5.6%

0.2%

Cotton

123.2

127.3

-3.2%

123.4

127.6

-3.3%

0.2%

Total

1095.4

1091.9

0.3%

1103.0

1099.2

0.3%

0.7%

Incremental WoW

6.9

3.9

-44.2%

7.6

7.3

-2.8%

Source: Agricoop, PL

Exhibit 2: Rainfall deficit as on 20th Sep’23; down 7% YoY

Week ending

Date

% Deviation from Normal

Country as a whole

Northwest India

Central India

South Peninsula

Northeast & East India

31-May-23

22.0

337.0

13.0

(24.0)

(45.0)

07-Jun-23

(57.0)

69.0

(71.0)

(63.0)

(84.0)

14-Jun-23

(53.0)

(20.0)

(73.0)

(54.0)

(48.0)

21-Jun-23

(33.0)

37.0

(60.0)

(58.0)

(18.0)

28-Jun-23

(16.0)

42.0

(17.0)

(45.0)

(21.0)

05-July-23

(7.0)

37.0

(6.0)

(32.0)

(17.0)

12-July-23

2.0

59.0

4.0

(23.0)

(19.0)

19-July-23

2.0

46.0

8.0

(19.0)

(19.0)

26-July-23

5.0

34.0

14.0

2.0

(25.0)

02-Aug-23

4.0

26.0

13.0

2.0

(24.0)

09-Aug-23

0.0

18.0

7.0

(7.0)

(19.0)

16-Aug-23

(6.0)

10.0

(3.0)

(12.0)

(19.0)

23-Aug-23

(7.0)

8.0

(4.0)

(15.0)

(19.0)

30-Aug-23

(9.0)

4.0

(10.0)

(17.0)

(16.0)

06-Sep-23

(11.0)

(2.0)

(12.0)

(11.0)

(19.0)

13-Sep-23

(10.0)

(1.0)

(9.0)

(10.0)

(19.0)

20-Sep-23

(7.0)

2.0

(3.0)

(11.0)

(21.0)

Source: IMD, PL

Exhibit 3: Water Reservoir table as on 21st Sep’23: down 19% YoY; South India remains lower

Reservoir levels

Current Year

Last Year

Avg. of last 10 years

All India

71%

88%

77%

North India

87%

86%

80%

East India

65%

72%

73%

West India

84%

95%

76%

Central India

82%

85%

82%

South India

48%

92%

72%

Source: CWC, PL

Exhibit 4: Weekly Crop Prices continues to be remunerative YoY barring Cotton, Soybean and paddy.

Crops(RS/Qntl)

2nd Week Sep'23

3rd Week Sep'23

4th Week Sep'23

4th Week Sep'22

YoY(%)

WoW(%)

Avg. Aug'23

Change(%)

Wheat

2,557

2,591

2,475

2,404

2.9%

-4.5%

3,353

-26.2%

Jowar(Sorghum)

3,256

3,577

3,000

2,459

22.0%

-16.1%

3,395

-11.6%

Bajra(Pearl Millet)

2,350

2,399

2,117

2,007

5.4%

-11.8%

2,200

-3.8%

Arhar Dal (Tur)

12,543

14,020

13,988

9,281

50.7%

-0.2%

22,528

-37.9%

Maize

2,464

2,487

2,096

2,001

4.7%

-15.7%

3,189

-34.3%

Green Gram Dal

10,033

10,589

9,772

8,009

22.0%

-7.7%

18,271

-46.5%

Black Gram Urd beans

9,089

8,728

8,274

7,011



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