We may have to wait till Dec 3 to see if market gets back its bounce

New Delhi: Until last week it appeared that the current festive season of Dussehra and Diwali would see the markets touching new highs and moving up even higher. A week later, with the Israel-Hamas fighting intensifying, these hopes lie shattered.

The entire issue seems to have got delayed and may get pushed even further. Elections in five states would be held in November and the results would be declared on December 3. This would cause some ripples in the markets as the ruling party in many of these states is not the government at the Centre.

India appeared to be one shining example of a market which was doing well as the economy was firing on virtually all cylinders. The joker in the pack was the way oil prices had again raised their ugly head and seemed all set to cross the three-digit mark. With a conflict on, and oil hitting India, the rupee too was under pressure and hurting the economy.

All these factors do not augur well for the country, its economy and the markets. In such a scenario, the feel-good factor in the markets too has taken a beating and affected the technical set-up of the markets.

What at one time looked like all was going well and we would cross 19,800-850 on NIFTY and then move on to 20,200 points seems a distant dream in the immediate future.

The near-term outlook also seems to have gotten a bit murky. We may take time to form a bottom and recover from there. This could take us closer to the 19,000-19,050 levels or in a worst-case scenario to 18,800 levels.

From there the rally would become that much steeper and tougher. Further, the political scenario pre-elections is always a time when investors are a bit wary of the markets.

As it is, the FPIs seem to be a little cautious in India and have been net sellers over the last few months. What could change their view is just that markets have become cheaper or as a destination we are better than the rest.

Data on the GDP front, GST collections has been encouraging and there has been no reason for complaints. Even advance tax numbers were encouraging which gives the government comfort on their tax collection numbers.

Coming to the markets and where they can move higher to, is an important question but difficult to answer with so many moving parts currently. Suffice to say that at present, the festival period will not provide the fillip that was expected.

Coming to December post the election results of the five states there is some possibility that the markets could go into an upward movement. If this event does not offer any movement then we could expect it in the beginning of February when the budget is announced or what little of the same comes in an election year.

This could be the last chance for the flurry and sharp upward move. By then the state of the opposition and what would be the opposition bloc would have been decided. This would be the best chance for the markets to rally.

All of the above presupposes that the current conflict would have ended. Some of you may be wondering why I have changed my stance on the markets so soon.

The main reason is that over the week all technical levels have broken down and a rebound from these levels looks difficult. The markets would have to correct, then consolidate and only then an upward move may or may not happen.

To conclude, the war has made us miss an important time to coincide with the festival fervour in India for a new market high. Let us wait out for some time before the next opportunity arises.